England’s daunting World Cup path now clear as Samoa deliver another statement

England now know exactly what must happen for them to reach the Rugby League World Cup semi-finals after Samoa put on another impressive showing to defeat Papua New Guinea.

The 2022 finalists were incredibly impressive in Port Moresby, running out 64-6 winners to take another step towards a possible place in the semi-finals of the men’s tournament.

And their win eliminated another possible path to the knockouts for England – who now, realistically, have just one route left: and it is an incredibly tough one.

England’s route to semi-finals clear

There were several routes through before Round 2 of the group stage began, including a possible Papua New Guinea victory against the Samoans on Saturday morning.

That appeared a distinct possibility at half-time when the scoreline was just 14-6. Sua Fa’alogo’s early try was cancelled out by a score for Bailey Biondi-Odo – but that was as good as it got for the hosts.

Tries for Spencer Leniu and Stephen Crichton just before the break put Samoa in control, before Fa’alogo scored his second shortly after the restart.

And what followed was a complete procession. Francis Manuleleua, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Brian To’o all crossed for tries before Robert Derby was sin-binned for PNG following a professional foul.

In that period alone, Samoa scored another four tries to move further clear of England should a points difference scenario materialise in the next two weekends. Shawn Blore, Ronald Volkman, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Izack Tago all crossed before Derby returned to the field.

There was still time for two more late tries even when parity was restored, as Blore and Ata Mariota touched down.

England must rack up the points

For England, the picture is now clear.

Only a win for Tonga against Samoa keeps their hopes of reaching the semi-finals alive from this point onwards, but those two nations now do not play until after England’s final two group games.

England have to ultimately pile on the points in those games against France and Papua New Guinea. Their only route through now is by pipping Samoa on points difference, on the assumption they lose to Tonga and both nations finish with two wins from three.

But their points difference is currently 150 points worse than Samoa’s – meaning that needs to be bridged across England’s games against France and Papua New Guinea, as well as the margin of a possible Samoan defeat to Tonga.

It also means that England will be relying on a huge favour from Tonga, the side who defeated them last week – with it almost certain they will not score that many points in their two final group games.

In short, England’s route to the semi-finals was already tough – but a second big win for Tonga in as many games has made that job reach levels of near impossibility.

As for Samoa, they once again look like a side who could go deep and cause major problems for the world’s best nations this autumn, with another statement win in Port Moresby against a PNG side many fancied to run the Samoans close.