The business end of the season: points percentage permutations in all three divisions

16th September 2019 , Old Trafford , Manchester, England; 2019 Betfred Super League Rugby Play-off press conference ; The Grand Final Trophy at Old Trafford Credit: Mark Cosgrove/News Images

We’re fast approaching the play-offs and with only a couple of weekends left of regular season, we’ve taken a look at who can finish where.

Note: all the calculations below assume that all games will be played, and doesn’t take into consideration postponements for COVID reasons. Likewise, draws haven’t been taken in to consideration either for simplicity.

Super League

Catalans secured top spot with their win at Magic Weekend over St Helens, who will finish second unless they lose both their remaining games and Warrington win both of theirs.

Warrington can’t finish any lower than third, and so are guaranteed a home play-off eliminator.

Any of Wigan, Leeds, Castleford and Hull KR can still secure fourth in the table.

For Hull KR to finish fourth, they would have to win both their games and hope Wigan lose both of theirs.

Castleford can finish fourth if they win both of their games and Leeds and Wigan lose at least one of their final two games.

For Wigan to miss out on the play-offs, they would have to lose both of their games, with Leeds and Castleford to win one and Hull KR to win both.

The only way Hull can make the play-offs, is if Hull KR beat both Castleford and Leeds; Castleford and Leeds lose their other game; Hull win both of their matches, and end up with a better points difference percentage than Leeds.

Remaining fixtures: St Helens v Leeds, Hull v Wigan, Warrington v Salford, Catalans v Huddersfield, Hull KR v Castleford, Leigh v Wakefield.

Castleford v Warrington, Leeds v Hull KR, Salford v St Helens, Wakefield v Hull, Wigan v Catalans

Championship

Toulouse are guaranteed top spot after their win at Bradford, and will therefore play their play-off semi-final at home.

Featherstone will definitely finish second, and will also play their play-off semi-final at home.

Halifax, Bradford and Batley are guaranteed to finish in the play-offs.

London Broncos can secure their play-off spot by winning one of their last two games – if they fail to win both, and Whitehaven win their games against Halifax and Bradford, then the Cumbrians will take the final play-off spot.

Halifax are in the box seat for third spot and one win would be enough if Bradford lose one of their final two matches if they can retain a superior points difference percentage to Batley.

Batley can finish third in the table if they win both of their games, and Bradford only manage one win; though it will come down to points difference percentage with Halifax, if Halifax win their game against Whitehaven.

If Bradford win both their remaining matches, then the only thing that can stop them finishing third is if Halifax win both of their games.

London could still finish third, but would need to win both their remaining games, Batley to beat Halifax, Halifax lose to Whitehaven and Bradford to lose their final two.

Remaining fixtures: Batley v Dewsbury, London B v Featherstone, Oldham v Newcastle, Whitehaven v Halifax, Widnes v Bradford, Sheffield v Swinton.

Newcastle v Toulouse, Bradford v Whitehaven, Dewsbury v Oldham, Featherstone v Sheffield, Halifax v Batley, Swinton v Widnes, York v London

League 1

Barrow Raiders will secure the League 1 title and promotion to the Championship if they beat West Wales Raiders this weekend.

Workington are guaranteed to finish in the top two, but can finish first if they win and Barrow fail to win.

The other four play-off places will definitely go to Doncaster, North Wales Crusaders, Keighley and Hunslet.

Doncaster will secure third by beating Keighley, but if they lose, the Cougars will go above them. If Doncaster lose, North Wales Crusaders can secure third with a win. If North Wales do not win and Keighley do, the Cougars will finish third, Doncaster fourth and Crusaders fifth.

Hunslet will finish sixth, but for a significant swing in points difference percentage off the back of a win for them at Workington and a defeat for Keighley.

Rochdale’s defeat at home to Barrow on Sunday means they can no longer reach the play-offs, with Coventry, London Skolars and West Wales all locked in 8th, 9th and 10th respectively.

Remaining fixtures: Barrow v West Wales, North Wales v London S, Doncaster v Keighley, Rochdale v Coventry, Workington v Hunslet.

1 Comment

  1. “Note: all the calculations below assume that all games will be played, and doesn’t take into consideration postponements for COVID reasons.”

    So it doesn’t assume that ALL games will be played at all. Only one team will have played all their fixtures (Wigan), and one (Hull KR) will have played 5 games less – that’s one fifth of their season. Of the teams going into the playoffs, it is likely that at least two teams will have played at least 4 games less than Wigan (Saints, Warrington,and possibly Hull KR).

    It seems like the integrity of the competition is rather lacking this year. There has been no intention to play postponed fixtures, and nobody is even mentioning them any more.

    A very disappointing resolution (or lack thereof) from the powers that be.

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