The Big NRL Tactics Preview Part 2: Penrith’s streak to end? Shock wooden spooners and more..

Love Rugby League’s resident Aussie rugby league guru Mike Wood is back with the second half of his bumper tactical preview of the 2025 NRL season.

In part one – which you can read below – Mike looked at the nine teams who missed the finals last year and assessed their prospects for the new season.

Now it’s the turn of last season’s top eight. Can they fare just as well? And can anyone snap Penrith’s dominance? Spoiler: potentially.

Read on..

PART ONE: The Big NRL Tactics Preview 2025 Part 1: the Tigers, the Broncos, Souths and more

Raiders

Question: Can you win things with kids?

Ricky Stuart is as old as the hills, but his team is not.

They blooded two new spine members last year in Kaeo Weekes and Ethan Strange, and could throw in two more as 2025 goes on – Owen Pattie has impressed at hooker and Ethan Sanders is the next big thing at 7. Chevy Stewart, still 19, is also waiting in the wings.

That’s a lot of youth and promise, but you’d not want to field them all at the same time if it could be avoided. Jamal Fogarty, the senior playmaker, has a huge amount resting on his shoulders, as do Joseph Tapine and Josh Papalii through the middle.

In coaching, you can keep fans on side either by winning or by giving the impression that you’re doing something to win in the future. Sticky has the second regardless, so the first mightn’t matter that much.

That win in Vegas was the perfect start, but Canberra won’t get ahead of themselves. Stuart has made a career out of one-off ambushes – here is a man crying out for a cup competition – and the problem has generally been repeating them every week.

Very early prediction: 10 wins/11th place

Optimism. It would be surprising if a Ricky Stuart-coached, Canberra-based team didn’t jag a few wins through sheer guts and Sticky’s nous, but hopes will not be high across the distance. By 2026, the hope will be that we’ve seen the next generation emerge, even if the birth is a little painful to start with.

Newcastle

Question: Who are the halves?

It’s not a spoiler with the Knights. Their halves problem stems back years, from when they tried to make Kalyn Ponga a 6, signed multiple other players to fill his role, then found out he couldn’t defend in the front line.

They have Jackson Hastings, Jack Cogger, Tyson Gamble, Will Pryce and now converted fullback Fletcher Sharpe to cover two positions. Many cooks, bad broth.

The temptation will be to chop and change halves, but with a year of that already in the books, we know where it ends.

Newcastle actually made the finals last year, but hopes can’t be high to back that up. Their best middle is leaving – Leo Thompson to the Bulldogs for 2026 – and plenty of their better players are, if not over the hill, teetering on the edge of it. Tyson Frizell and Dane Gagai made their rep debuts a full decade ago.

Kalyn Ponga often drags them through games, but if he should go down or lose form, there are holes a mile wide in this roster. Not great for a guy with known concussion issues that could strike at any time.

Very early prediction: Six wins/17th place

Newcastle have a soft start in the draw, but if they don’t get up in their winnable fixtures, then things only get tougher as the year goes on. Adam O’Brien is a favourite in the sack race and we might finally get a British coach in the NRL before the year is out with Brian McDermott waiting in the wings.

Manly

Question: Is no recruitment the best type of recruitment?

Every preview of Manly tends to start and end with the fitness of Tom Trbojevic, but it’s clear that the Sea Eagles have tried to think around this problem. With Turbo, they have someone who can lead them to a Premiership, but Anthony Seibold knows that his health is unreliable.

Instead, they’ve got a surfeit of backs who he hopes can do in the aggregate what Tommy does on his own, and on top of that, they have two experienced, intelligent halves and, for the first time in a long time, actual forward depth.

They signed just one player in the off-season – bench forward Jazz Tevaga – and while that was partly a function of a tight salary cap, Manly are a smart club who know that the secret ingredient in highly systemic sports like rugby league is cohesion.

That’s doubled if you’re trying to play in a markedly different fashion to everyone else, which Manly certainly are. They’ll score a lot, so if the defence improves, they could skyrocket up the league.

Alternatively it could all collapse, but as this columnist is resident of Sydney’s Northern Beaches and known Sea Eagle apologist, let’s stick to the positives.

Very early prediction: 16 wins/3rd place

With a highly grooved playstyle now entering its third year of operation under Seibold, this is as good a chance as they’ll get.

That might be why the Sea Eagles have pulled every lever they have available. They’ve gamed the cap a little by signing experienced players on train and trials as depth, then further gamed the schedule by opting to play all 12 games at Fortress Brookvale, where they almost never lose.

It’s a bit short-termist, but with Daly Cherry-Evans potentially entering his final year, that might be fine.

Manly have four of the first five at home plus what should be a fairly benign finish, so there’s no excuse not to make the top four. From there, with their record against better sides generally decent, anything is possible.

Bulldogs

Question: Can Toby Sexton step up?

There’s a whole lot of expectation at Belmore following their best year in a very, very long time. That will be seen as a privilege by a group that is stacked with leaders and feels a strong connection with the community that so vociferously backed them in 2024.

The defence is one of the best, the cohesion is good with few player turnovers and coach Cameron Ciraldo is only growing in confidence as he enters his third year in charge.

Every silver lining has a cloud however, and time will tell on whether the Dogs have been able to improve on their limitation from 2024, which was the attack. It wasn’t that they didn’t score points – rather it was that, against the very best, their lack of elite creativity let them down.

Against finals opponents, Canterbury went 4-8. Their season was ended by a Manly side that outplayed them in every spine position. Matt Burton is rep level at 6 and Reed Mahoney is tough at 9, but Toby Sexton at 7 and Connor Tracey at 1 are miles off the best.

With young halfback Mitchell Woods the next best thing in the junior grades, there is no call to sign a playmaker, but with so many other great players ready to progress right now, there will be a lot of pressure on Sexton to perform. If he doesn’t, it’s hard to see Canterbury going much further in 2025 than they did in 2024.

Very early prediction: 13 wins/7th place

Much of a muchness for the Doggies, which after years of being rubbish, will probably be fine. Finishing much lower than 8th would be a surprise, but so would top four. If Woods is playing by the second half of the year, we’ll have learned a lot.

Cowboys

Question: Is this a good year or a bad one?

That seems like a very glib question, but it’s true in the case of the Cowboys. The last four years have seen them finish 5th, 11th, 3rd and 15th, alternating between useless and decent.

In truth the performances levels haven’t always backed up those results – the fifth place was a little flattering, the 11th a bit harsh and the third probably a few too high – and in truth, nobody at any point thought North Queensland might actually win the thing.

Their issue is a lack of topline talent in key positions, especially the spine, but signs are that things are changing. Tom Dearden has improved massively, so has Reece Robson and Scott Drinkwater is now paying back in attack what he has always lacked in defence.

Their best are among the best but all have their flaws. Nobody knows how long Jason Taumalolo has left, if John Bateman can recover himself and if Jeremiah Nanai can do a Drinkwater and produce enough offensively to cover up glaring defensive issues.

Get it together and this is a good footy team and potentially a lot of fun to watch. Then again, they’re due an off year…

Very early prediction: 12 wins/8th place

As good as some areas are, a back five that includes Jaxson Paulo, Semi Valemei and Viliami Vailea will scare nobody and Jake Clifford – or debutant Tom Duffy – have a lot of convincing to do in the halves.

The hope will be that the floor is high enough to make the finals, but it will take a lot of improvement again for the latter stages of the post-season.

Cronulla

Question: Is Addin-Fonua Blake the difference?

The NRL’s great flat-track bullies have made serious moves to change that in the off-season, not least with the addition of barnstorming prop Addin Fonua-Blake.

The Sharkies have mastered the high-activity, support-heavy style of attack and used it to overwhelm bad teams. Against the best, however, they have been overpowered at times, not least when humbled by Penrith on multiple occasions.

With AFB in the ranks, they will hope that they can muscle up. If Tom Hazleton continues to develop and Tuku Hau Taupuha steps up too, they’re a massive threat in the middle and will still have all their excellence out wide.

The back five are brilliant, the spine is settled and the coach, Craig Fitzgibbon, knows exactly what he is doing. It should be Up, Up for Cronulla in 2025.

Very early prediction: 15 wins/4th place

Whatever is happening in the Shire, we’ll probably find out early: they play Penrith in Vegas then the Cowboys in Townsville, as well as Manly (twice), Melbourne and Canterbury in the opening three months.

This side has historically has struggled against the best, but will get a perfect chance to change that perception. Losing to the Panthers in Vegas wasn’t an ideal start, but plenty of teams lose to them and, in fairness, the Sharks were a lot better in defeat than they usually are.

Should they get to their Round 13 bye in decent shape, the Sharks could be well placed to go very deep.

Roosters

Question: Does a system trump individuals?

Trent Robinson is a systems guy, a true great of modern coaching. Nobody thinks more steps ahead than Robbo.

That will be heavily, heavily tested in 2025, as for the first time in a long time, one of the NRL’s glamour clubs will be going into the season undermanned.

Sam Walker, who truly unlocks this side, is injured. Brandon Smith is too. Luke Keary, Terrell May, Joey Manu and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii have all departed.

This being Easts, there’s still buckets of talent to go around, but getting the links between them right will be where Robinson earns his cash.

Sandon Smith and Chad Townsend are not elite halves. The centres could be anything, with two of union convert Mark Nawaqanitawase, debutant Robert Toia and the perma-injured Billy Smith likely to play. Nobody has a clue who will be on the bench.

It’s as unsettled as it has been, but at a club like the Roosters, expectation will always be there. Their floor should be very high, even if the ceiling is temporarily low.

Very early prediction: 10 wins/9th place

Easts have made a habit of starting slow and finishing fast – and it might be the case that a similar trick is required in 2025. If they can stay respectable until Walker and Brandon Smith come back, then expect them to come home like a train after Origin.

Melbourne

Question: Can anyone stop them?

Last year it took a mammoth showing from the Panthers to deny Melbourne in the Grand Final.

Cameron Munster didn’t even play that well in 2024 but Jahrome Hughes stepped up to truly elite levels and was one of the best in the year. Harry Grant is as good as they come. The wingers are exceptional. Oh, and the coach goes alright.

They have now gained Stefano Utoikamanu, have Ryan Papenhuyzen available for a full season and have vital experience into Jack Howarth and Sua Fa’alogo, who should only go from strength to strength.

Christian Welch is a big departure on the culture side, but in truth, he wasn’t always in their best 17 last year and beyond him, only fringe players have left.

The Craig Bellamy style has always been to find superstars and backfill everyone else, but really, there’s not even that many who need it now. The team is stacked. The coach is elite. Even after Penrith winning four in a row, Melbourne are the team to beat.

Very early prediction: 19 wins/1st

There’s no reason why Melbourne can’t win another Minor Premiership, which is the sort of thing they have been doing even in years when they haven’t won the big prize. Barring a catastrophe, they’ll walk to the top four and, in fairness, even with a catastrophe, they’ll likely make it anyway.

This is a side set up to crush the regular season and then take it from there. Pencil a Preliminary Final in now, and start them as Premiership favourites.

Penrith

Question: Will it ever stop?

Four years into the Panthers dynasty, every preview has to start with how they lose players but still keep going.

2025 is a little different. Two of the irreplaceables have gone in Jarome Luai and James Fisher-Harris, who were not only among their best players but also cultural leaders in the group.

Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo are the outright best in the side (and in the world), and Dylan Edwards and Brian To’o are the most emblematic of the unbreakable system, but Luai was the spark plug and Fish the pack leader. Someone has to step up to replace them.

Ivan Cleary replaces everyone in the aggregate anyway, but heretofore that was less important players.

Api Koroisau went, but Mitch Kenny filled in to lead the line speed and they found creativity elsewhere. Stephen Crichton was an elite centre, but centre is not a crucial position in this system. Viliame Kikau in the back row fell into the same category.

In a systems sport, they have the proven best system. Either they fail to replicate it or the sport changes enough to render them obsolete.

Very early prediction: 17 wins/2nd

As long as the back five make metres, the pack can focus on the defence and the field position strangle will start. Without Fisher-Harris, that defensive resolve might drop. Without Luai, so might the ability to turn that position into points.

Moreover, the more attack-minded the NRL becomes, the less field position might matter, and with it, the chances of an ultra-offensive team Manly or Cronulla (or a 2023-style Brisbane) becoming a legitimate challenger grows and grows. Melbourne might already be there.

Still, we’ve said this every year. It ain’t over til it’s over, and that’s never more true than with the Panthers.