The Big NRL Tactics Preview 2025 Part 1: the Tigers, the Broncos, Souths and more

Here’s the thing about the NRL: for all the salary cap equalisation measures, it’s actually a very uneven competition.

Mostly, the same teams win it and the same teams finish towards the top. Equally, the same teams generally finish towards the bottom.

The second thing about the NRL is that, despite what Peter V’landys might imply, it remains a rugby league competition, not the only one, not even close to it.

As a competition in the sport of rugby league, it is fundamentally one about systems: who has the best on-field system and, behind that, the best off-field system to populate and organise the on-field.

Thus, it doesn’t matter that everyone gets the same starting budget, because they don’t start equally in cohesion or (and it’s a different thing) coherence.

On a tactical level, rugby league is a weak link sport in which you design a playstyle to cover issues in your roster while promoting strengths.

On a structural level, it’s about aligning recruitment and coaching to improve over time, eke up the league and stay there.

That’s why previews always start from analysing past trends, then layering new information on top of them. You have to look at every individual starting point and ascertain the possibilities from there.

At least one team a year – the 2022 Cowboys, the 2023 Warriors, the 2024 Bulldogs – will shoot from crap to great, and several might slide, but in the wash, most end up about where you think they might.

When we look at 17 teams collectively, that unevenness plays out.

In 2024, the Tigers finished last with six wins, but that would have been enough for third bottom in 2023 and fifth bottom in 2022.

12 wins got an average Newcastle team to the finals in 2024, but in 2023, they would have finished behind Canberra (who had a negative points difference) and in 2022, they’d have been well short of the 14 victories required to make the post-season.

At the start of 2024 (and I have the receipts) it was hard to see that certain teams – Manly, Parra and Souths in particular – could be so bad/unlucky/both again, and that a rebound was coming. That happened for the Sea Eagles but the other two sacked their coach.

At the start of 2025, we have the opposite problem. Looking across the league, one can pick a few improvers, but plenty more fallers.

Will that make the NRL less even? Does it even matter? Let’s find out – and in the interests of keeping you reading to the end, we’ll do it in reverse ladder order from last year, starting with last year’s bottom eight before the second part looks at the top nine.

Tigers

Question: Is Benji a legit coach?

Failure and the Tigers are basically synonymous, but this side are, if not great, then certainly not dreadful. For the first time in a long time, they aren’t wooden spoon favourites.

Jarome Luai and Api Koroisau are elite footballers and Lachlan Galvin and Jahream Bula are among the most promising youngsters around. Terrell May is a properly good middle. There is, at last, some depth.

2024 was about sorting the wheat from the chaff in the roster and moving forwards. 2025 is where the rubber has to hit the road, and that will fall on the coach. If Benji Marshall is any good, this is the year we’ll find out.

Tactically he wasn’t all that bad last year – cattle was always a limitation – and his most senior players were often his least effective. Most of them have now gone and it’s his team, his plan and his ideas. That means there is nowhere to hide.

Very early prediction: Eight wins/14th place

As celebrated social media fan Big T likes to put it: ‘not nil’. Fans are so worn down that anything better than last is an improvement, and this should be the year it happens.

Last year saw six wins – two more than in 2023 or 2022 – so an early goal will be to improve on that. Seven or more should be more than achievable with this roster, and from there, it’s only a good wind to the finals. 10th place would feel like a Premiership, but let’s moderate and say they’ll top the bottom four.

Souths

Question: Is the Bennett magic still real?

Here’s the thing about Wayne Bennett: he doesn’t really do tactics, so it’s hard to give that much of a tactical preview. His expertise is sitting atop the actions of others and adding 10% to everyone else. With the roster and coaching staff at South Sydney, that should be plenty.

But: Cam Murray is out, Latrell is out to start the year and Cody Walker is a year older. The pack was underpowered to start with and hasn’t got any better after the departure of Tom Burgess.

Uncle Wayne has been a miracle worker in the past but even this might be too much for him. He was good at Redcliffe, but the biggest achievement was defying the expectation that they’d lose every game and finish last. That won’t pass at Souths.

His Dolphins were dull as ditchwater and relied upon individuals to win them games. That might work with the Bunnies, but if those guys aren’t on the field, it might not.

Can Lewis Dodd be better than Lachlan Ilias? Can Peter Mamouzelos be better than Damien Cook? Are they still going to try that left-switch to Alex Johnston that everyone has now seen 3,000 times?

Very early prediction: Seven wins/15th place

This wasn’t a good roster before the best two members of it got injured. Bennett is a legend, but he’s got his work cut out and might rely on other teams also plummeting to avoid another bottom four finish. If it goes badly, expect things to unravel very quickly indeed.

Parramatta

Question: Are they fighting the last war?

Brad Arthur’s Eels were the last team playing like it was 2017, all offloads and big boppers, so much so that it actually made them hard to play against – at least until they all got tired ten minutes before half time.

New boss Jason Ryles has ditched that in favour of, we are told, a small ball approach. Reagan Campbell-Gillard is gone, Junior Paulo has shed the kilos. J’maine Hopgood is now a prop.

If the plan is line speed and push supports, then welcome to 2023, Parramatta. Unfortunately, everyone else is already there and several seasons of practice deep.

Dylan Brown wants out, Mitch Moses barely lasts a full season and Zac Lomax has moved to the club to play centre when he’s clearly much better on the wing. It’s a mixed bag at best.

Very early prediction: Nine wins/12th place

Class is permanent, so a team with Moses and Brown in the halves will get wins, especially at home. Lomax and Josh Addo-Carr are quality operators and will score points. It will take more than that to be a finals chance, however, and it doesn’t seem likely.

Titans

Question: Have they learned how to tackle?

Every Titans preview from their entry to the NRL in 2007 should start with ‘Have they learned how to tackle?’

Their defence is permanently awful, and as long as they keep picking Brian Kelly, that will likely continue.

To that they have added Jayden Campbell as a frontline defender – the NRL lists him at 80 kilos but that must be after a dip in the sea in his kit. If opposition analysts are any good, his shoulders will be getting one hell of a workout.

It’s the biggest if going, but if the Titans can stop averaging six line breaks conceded a game, they’ll go great.

Tino Fa’asuamaleaui is back and one of the best around in his position, and he gets Reagan Campbell-Gillard for company. There’s points everywhere, from Campbell and AJ Brimson in the halves to big Dave Fifita and Lofi Khan-Pereira out wide.

Des Hasler is a good coach who knows the problem he needs to solve. Trouble is that everyone before him on the Gold Coast has known it too, and it remains the same.

Very early prediction: 11 wins/8th place

No, really, this is the year they do it. Not win the Premiership, but they won’t be terrible. If their good players play, the points will be enough that they might be able to defend them, and enough bad teams will stay bad that the Titans will be around the finals race.

Warriors

Question: Will they score enough points?

The problem with the Wahs under Andrew Webster is that they were too good too quickly.

Even when they were good, their attack wasn’t great and it was ultimately found out at the very highest level. Everyone was so caught up in the hype train (and with good reason) that it didn’t matter, but anyone who cared to look could see the issue.

Last year was a bump back to Earth, though you might not have noticed. We were still having a great time with this team.

The third year of Webby is an inflection point. Three of their best are gone – Shaun Johnson, Addin Fonua-Blake and Tohu Harris – but the side might actually get stronger anyway.

The attacking issue was that they were often predictable: SJ on the right to Dallin Watene-Zelezniak at the corner and AFB on the crash line had been seen a thousand times. When they went to the left, opposition centres stood up on Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and forced him inwards.

Now, James Fisher-Harris is the undoubted leader and can provide a different type of middle thrust.

Wayde Egan can call the shots from the ruck with two run-first halves in Luke Metcalf and Te Maire Martin to challenge edges. There’s reasons for optimism in Auckland.

Then again, we all watched on in Vegas as the ball went slowly from sideline to sideline, with Tuivasa-Sheck unable to get any space, flashbacks of last year running through our heads. Hmmm.

Very early prediction: Seven wins/16th place

Likely the Wahs won’t be enough to trouble the biggest boys, but it should win plenty of games, not least at home. A finals tilt isn’t impossible but much more than that is unlikely.

Broncos

Question: Is Madge actually good in the NRL?

There’s the thing about Michael Maguire, and once you notice it, it’s impossible to miss.

His intensity, which proper footy blokes love, is great in small doses but horrendous the longer you leave it. It’s why he was a great rep coach and hasn’t posted a winning NRL season for going on a decade.

Tactically, you’d go a long way to find a better analyst of opponents and you know the standard will be there defensively, but proactivity with the ball might be an issue.

The easy answer of chucking the ball to Reece Walsh/Ezra Mam/Ben Hunt/Adam Reynolds and getting out of the way could scrape enough wins, especially at Suncorp, but the potential of multiple cooks, confused hierarchy and big bad Madge staring over the shoulder is huge.

Once it goes wrong, you’d get the old boys, the intensity and all that going the other way. The talent levels are high but that doesn’t cut it in the NRL like it did in 2014.

Very early prediction: 14 wins/6th place

It rarely gets too bad at the Broncos, as you get to play more home games than anyone else, and the draw has delivered big time as they play the Panthers, Sea Eagles and Sharks just once but the Titans and Dolphins twice. On that alone, it’s hard to see them missing the 8.

The other side to that is the expectation, which is sky high on the back of a poor year and with two of their key playmakers aging, in the case of Adam Reynolds, potentially rapidly.

Once it goes wrong, you’d get the old boys, the intensity and all that going the other way. The talent levels are high but that doesn’t cut it in the NRL like it did in 2014.

Dragons

Question: Where is the creativity coming from?

Shane Flanagan footy is often very boring. That’s not necessarily a criticism, as it is occasionally also very effective. Having openly said at the start of his first year that he wasn’t that bothered about results, wrangling an 11th place finish in 2024 was pretty decent, all things considered.

The priority was roster turnaround, and while that has taken place, it doesn’t really have the whiff of long-term planning about it.

Clint Gutherson and Damien Cook are in, but both are the wrong side of 30 and have often been more about effort areas than x-factor. Lachlan Ilias is also onboard, but he was dropped by Souths before getting hurt and has done his best work as a foil to other, more expansive players.

With a spine of those three plus Kyle Flanagan, who literally never runs the footy, the question of where the points are going to come from looms large. Val Holmes is a strong addition, but also older and less explosive than he once was.

The old coach, Anthony Griffin, had a plan that never really went further than ‘Give it to Dozer’, but now Ben Hunt isn’t there at all. Kick it at Zac Lomax doesn’t work either, as he’s at Parramatta.

Who do they chuck it to with the game on the line? Will they chuck it to anyone at all?

Very early prediction: Nine wins/13th place

This is a solid side and you’d expect them to compete hard and not concede many. They will, however, have to score at some point in an increasingly offence-minded NRL.

It might not be pretty, but the Dragons will probably beat enough dross to finish higher than last, as the bookies have them, and they’ll lose zero players to Origin, so that’ll help. A good year ends in 13th, a bad year doesn’t bear thinking about.

Dolphins

Question: Is this a new team or the same one?

As mentioned with Souths, Wayne Bennett teams are a special case.

He didn’t really do the tactics at the Dolphins, because Kristian Woolf did, so they have the same issue that the Bunnies did a few years ago. The second-in-charge becomes the first-in-charge, but actually mightn’t change that much.

Success for the Phins is improvement, but that comes in many forms. Last year they were 10th, up from 13th in year one, but even if they regress a little under Woolf, it might be yet that they see it as a win if a significant part of the roster is overhauled and their playstyle improved.

Redcliffe were god awful to watch, but as a new team coached by Bennett, nobody really cared. Grit, determination and a fair few good results saw them through. Woolf was an exceptional coach for St Helens and has backed that up with Tonga, so hopes should be high to maintain that.

Their age profile has dropped a lot and will drop further, so add a little more adventure and the same level of performances from the likes of Herbie Farnworth, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Jeremy Marshall-King and there’ll be a lot to like.

Very early prediction: 11 wins/10th place