The hidden battle already brewing between Queensland and NSW

As the 2025 Ampol State of Origin series draws closer, an interesting development is emerging with both Queensland and New South Wales scrambling to claim the cherished underdog tag.

Traditionally worn proudly by Queensland – the “battling” Maroons taking on the “powerhouse” Blues – the underdog identity has long been part of Queensland’s State of Origin folklore.

However, it now seems a mental arm-wrestle is underway, with both camps eager to cast themselves as the outsider who is ready to defy the odds.

This tug-of-war over underdog status began to surface with the recent unveiling of the New South Wales and Queensland extended squads for the series.

Rugby league pundits have been caught out playing it down for their own teams, trying to make the other side look tougher and get their own side fired up as the underdog.

On the Levels Network podcast, New South Wales rugby league legend Willie Mason – a man never shy of confidence – tried to position the narrative that Queensland has a better team on paper. “Queensland’s spine is probably better,” Mason said, “Forwards evenly matched… that’s just so even.”

Joined by former NRL and Super League player Justin Horo, the Blues advocates analysed the Origin squad’s side-by-side only to position NSW as the team with something to prove, despite convincingly winning last years series.

So why the fierce competition to claim underdog status? Historically, the badge belonged to Queensland. For decades, Queenslanders had been overshadowed, with Sydney-based clubs dominating rugby league in Australia through the Australian Rugby League (ARL) or as it was first known, the New South Wales Rugby Football League (NSWRFL).

For those who faced hardship above the border, the underdog story has always been a way for the state to push back when they’ve been overlooked and underestimated by their better financed and more powerful rival in Blue.

Today, Queensland enters the 2025 series as bookmakers’ outsiders for Game I at Suncorp Stadium, their spiritual home. At odds of $2.20, the Maroons wear that outsider label on paper, but some commentators are sceptical about how that narrative has taken hold so early.

Justin Horo, speaking on the Bloke in a Bar podcast, questioned the emergence of this story line: “How has this narrative built already? Queensland have somehow snuck into $2.20 outsiders and have a team who is visibly stronger than I think a year ago,” he quizzed.

“NSW have got question marks over the fitness of Payne Haas coming into camp.” The former NRL and Super League player laughed as he suggested the odds look like a conspiracy for a “game one ambush” for Queensland.

Host of the podcast, Denan Kemp, knew what old Horo was up to and fired straight back. “Maybe [Queensland is] very lucky to be stringing a team together – I was surprised we actually got 17 on the field,” he rebutted.

“We’re under the pump… and look, as a Queenslander, I just want us to turn up and have a crack… It’s going to take a very special effort to beat that NSW Blues side because it looks un-be-lievable! What a team, so tough, so scary. So hopefully our boys can go out there and get through the 80-minute game.”

This battle for the underdog mantle is more than just mind games – it draws on deep historical roots of the state verses state contest. Since the very first Origin game in 1980, the Maroons have thrived on their underdog status, stemming from an era when Queensland players were often selected in NSW teams because they played for Sydney clubs.

For many years, the Maroons, many who came from small country towns, felt like the second-class citizens fighting up against the mighty Sydney-based juggernauts.

But Queensland’s recent success complicated this narrative. Between 2006 and 2013, the Maroons forged an unprecedented eight-series winning streak, firmly establishing themselves as the dominant force in the head-t0-head statistics.

Prior to the eight-in-a-row, the historic rivalry was almost perfectly tit-for-tat. There was little between their win ratios, and even less between their historic accumulative points difference.

Thus, during that golden run, it got harder for Queensland to play the underdog card.

For many of today’s New South Wales players, childhood memories are filled with Queensland lifting the Origin shield year after year. To them, the Maroons weren’t the underdogs – they were the dominant force. Confident, cocky, and always on top.

Queensland coaching legend Mal Meninga once said after his sixth straight Origin win: “Queensland once again stands triumphant, their success hiding the filth and rats that continue in the sewers and dark corners.”

His interesting choice of words in a moment of victory reflected Queensland’s chip-on-the-shoulder mentality, particularly their ability to find renewed resentment toward NSW and their tactics such as delaying team announcements or criticism of Queensland’s closed training sessions.

This mindset is etched into Queenslander’s old and young. Each and every year, all new recruits are reminded, often through legendary guest speakers, of the struggles Queenslander’s faced in era’s gone by.

It’s instilled, that the Queensland jersey is sacred. It doesn’t matter who you are, you give everything and more in service to your state, and never give up. This was embodied by coach Paul “Fatty” Vautin’s 1995 team labelled by the NSW press as the “Neville nobodies” (featuring Adrian Lam) who upset the most star-studded Blues team you’d ever seen.

Even in recent years, when Sydney-based journalists have labelled the 2021 Queensland teams as “the worst in history,” Maroons coaches harvested those comments as motivation to claim unlikely victories.

At the end of the day, being the underdog isn’t just about the odds or what the experts think—it’s about pride, belief, and the mindset each team brings into the Origin arena.

As the Maroons and Blues prepare to meet on the battlefield once more, expect the psychological warfare to get as spicy as the physical contest.

In trying to gain any edge possible, both camps will jeer to and fro trying and claim the token as underdog to fuel the fire that makes State of Origin the greatest rivalry in rugby league.