Revealing the tactical traits that explain why the NRL is underwhelming in 2025

Sometimes, the scientific method is the best way. Without going back too much into high school biology experiments, the idea is simple.

You look at something using previous examples, form a hypothesis on what might happen, examine the evidence as it grows, then analyse it to, hopefully, come up with an explanation.

Hypothetico-deductive modelling mightn’t be the sexiest way of looking at rugby league, but it’s proven a decent way of looking at the 2025 NRL season so far.

We have 26 previous NRLs to look at – five under the current rule set – plus other rugby league competitions, and 17 clubs with individual backstories and narratives that could be taken into account.

If you read the Love Rugby League NRL tactical previews, you already know what that hypothesis was: this is an uneven comp with several good teams but a lot of bad ones.

The excellent Rugby League Eye Test has run the numbers on this, and since we’re attributing credits, he did so off an idea in the also excellent, Queensland-focused Maroon Observer, which posited that we are entering into a new era of Set Restart footy.

RLET’s research proved two things.

First, points are being scored at a much higher rate than usual and usually by just one side, with margins also large.

Second, more set restarts are being awarded than in any year other than 2021, when they had 40% more of the pitch in which to be given. Specifically, ruck infringements are also up massively, and more restarts are being called in attacking areas.

The final analysis combined these two with the obvious conclusion that more tries were scored as a result of more set restarts.

Anyone who watched Super League for its first 20 years remembers Eddie Hemmings saying ‘penalty, penalty, try’. Things have sped up, but they haven’t changed.

This passes the (excuse the pun) eye test, as longer time in possession causes more fatigue for the team without the ball, and fatigued teams concede more points.

Stats and tactics work best when considered as two parts of the same whole. One informs the other.

So why are more set restarts being called? Is it officiating or on-field tactics? What does it tell us about the NRL in 2025? Why are there more set restarts in 2025?

The obvious reason for most set restarts, particularly around ruck infringements, is due to teams trying to slow down the play the ball.

Remember, the reason that they were brought in was to speed up the game, particularly after the 2018 and 2019 Premiership-winning Sydney Roosters realised that you could lie all over the ruck, particularly on your own line, and dare the ref to send someone to the bin.

Now, we just get a wave of the ref’s hand, followed by zero analysis of what just happened, because the game keeps going.

If, for example, a penalty was given and the attacking side opted to take a match-winning penalty goal, we’d get a week’s worth of wrestling chat on NRL360 about it. Now, play on. Coaches notice, of course, but punters rarely do.

Manly lost the set restart count 11-2 away at the Warriors and were battered, then won it 7-1 against the Raiders and dished out a beating of their own.

Teams habitually give Six Agains away on plays one and two in their own red zone – again, confirmed by data – as they know a slow ruck early in the set cascades through the rest of it.

Against Canberra, Manly had 34 red zone play the balls in the first quarter, in which time the Raiders were pinged four times for ruck infringements – plus penalties for holding down and hands in the ruck – before Corey Horsburgh was binned for a blatant professional foul.

Watching back, it’s hard to see it as anything other than Canberra deliberately laying on, the ref pinging them for it and the tactic being successful anyway. Manly, one of the best attacking teams in the comp, still didn’t score until they were playing 12 men.

Did Manly dominate because of the set restarts? Or did the restarts happen because Canberra deliberately pushed the boundaries?

Canberra love a dogfight, Manly want a fast, open game. It makes sense that such a contrast took place and, on another day, a different ref might have let the Raiders away with it and the result changes.

With 17 playstyles and eight different refs, these things will happen and should be expected. If we’re doing the tactical analysis side, however, it goes deeper.

The sides that currently sit at the top for attack are Melbourne, Brisbane, Manly and Cronulla, all of whom thrive not just on a fast game but an expansive one.

The crucial difference compared to a pre-Six Again era is that good teams are far, far more likely to attack early in the set and from deep rather than waiting to get into position before striking.

The set restart has made the game faster but also made the field bigger, drastically re-weighting the relationship between possession and position.

Previously, you could get up one end, earn repeat sets and build fatigue that way. Now, with the set restart and the advent of short dropouts, that doesn’t work as well.

Good teams can and will attack on play one if the ruck is fast and the shape is there. Data shows that tries were being scored from further out, and that the long-standing imbalance between left and right – teams favoured left due to right-handed passers – is going too.

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As soon as the best teams win a ruck, they’re looking to play footy. The grind, the washing machine, whatever you want to call it, just isn’t as important as it was.

Tactics and talent disparities

This is being exacerbated by an uneven comp.

This was also the case in 2021, and was compounded by the worst excesses of the set restart and the first-mover advantages that some teams got from realising quickly what the new normal was.

Back then, there were three very good teams, three decent ones and everyone else was average to bad.

The gap between fifth and seventh was four wins, Newcastle finished seventh with a 50% record and the Titans made the finals after winning just ten games all year.

The blowouts became a problem for the league (and TV ratings) so the rules were tweaked and margins came in.

That’s just one reading of it, however. Another might be that the other teams learned the new way of playing and got better, reducing the gap between the top and bottom.

The NRL is a zero sum game, so some teams have to go up and others down, but the general, across-the-board standard has dropped.

This year has seen a lot of teams weaken their rosters, get new coaches or both, while few teams have concretely improved. Brisbane and the Wests Tigers look better, but everyone else is pretty much where you’d expect.

The bookies have six teams under $1.45 (9/20) to finish top eight, with the seventh in the betting at $2.25 (5/4). That’s a massive gap.

It’s exactly like it was in 2021, except we’re only a month in. Tellingly, the six are the same as were there before the season as well, with the same gap.

This has been reflected in results. Of the 32 games played so far, only seven underdogs have won.

The teams themselves know this, so it filters into strategy. When you’re at a talent disadvantage, it helps to play a slower, stodgier game and bring your opponent down to your level.

It’s the same as batting for a draw in cricket or sticking ten men behind the ball in football – a totally legitimate tactic to negate an opponent and give yourself a chance rather than going in all guns blazing and getting blitzed.

Teams are terrified of the roll on, so do whatever they can to stop it, especially early in a set. The closer to the goalline, the more you lay on and put hands in.

Over time, that leads to possession build-up and likely defeat, but on the occasions that it doesn’t – the ref is lenient or you get plain lucky – it is effective.

Bombs away

There’s another indicator of this more conservative playstyle: the proliferation of midfield bombs.

This is an offshoot of a tactic known as ‘caging’, where a kicking team would attempt to slow the start of the next set by dropping the ball in a corner on top of a receiver, removing their ability to get a roll on early.

That, in general, is a pretty good idea: kick to the corners, make them run it back is as old as the hills as far as tactics goes.

The difference now is that teams aren’t just doing it into the corners, they’re doing it in the middle of the field too

The kick goes high but not long, the fullback is allowed to catch it unimpeded and then tackled immediately.

The contest for the ball is nonexistent and all risk of a tap or a seven tackle set is removed. The trade off is that the chance of that kick turning into your own attacking opportunity also disappears.

This tactic is in part a reaction to the rules. The kick disruptor rule makes competing for bombs harder, and kicking closer to the tryline could give the fullback the chance to mark the ball in goal and run it back to the 20m.

The conservative option is the aimless midfield bomb.

In a situation of talent equality, a coach might think that the risk/reward is in favour of competing, where you can turn the end of a set into a scoring opportunity. In the same game mentioned above, Manly did this twice to Canberra.

Under the 2025 mindset, however, stopping the start of the next set is more important. If your opponent will attack from anywhere, you need to stop at play one rather than risk a strong ruck against or, even worse, a penalty.

You’d rather safely concede the ball on your opponent’s 30m line to them catching it on the 10m line but having a chance to get up a head of steam.

Faced with either talent disadvantage to a better opponent or an opponent they know is also not that good, a sensible coach would likely

Coaches like Ricky Stuart, Shane Flanagan, Kristian Woolf and Wayne Bennett have often preferred this style of football anyway before they factor in their cattle, but once you know that it’s a dogfight rather than a footy match, you can adapt accordingly.

It doesn’t make for great watching, but if you win, who cares?

Newcastle’s 10-8 win over the Wests Tigers in Round 1 was dross if you watched it, but it’s two points in the bag for Adam O’Brien. Same for Souths 16-14 victory over the Dolphins and the Warriors’ 14-6 snoozefest with the Roosters. Bad teams, playing bad football, doing just about enough.

We can’t expect all of the 213 games of first grade played a year to be belters, of course, and low-scoring games can be just as exciting as any. But tactical identity is something you can’t switch on and off: it’s how your team is across the whole season.

If your plan is to frustrate, lay in rucks and force the opponent to bring it back, then you can win some games but that’s about it.

Now, we have ten teams for whom that is the ultimate aspiration.

It’s going to mean more points, as when the tactic fails, there isn’t a plan B and they’ll get smashed. It’s going to mean more set restarts, as refs will eventually lose patience.

Ultimately, it’ll probably also lead to the rules being changed again – or the refs told not to apply them as harshly – because that’s historically how footy has solved these problems.