Ranking the toughness of the top 7’s final 10 games – with Warrington’s the easiest

There are 10 rounds remaining in the Super League regular season – and it increasingly looks like the race to make the play-offs is down to just seven teams.

Catalans Dragons’ defeat to Toulouse Olympique perhaps further convinced us all that they are out of the running and, realistically, unlikely to make the top six this year.

Which leaves seven teams for six spots – meaning someone is going to miss the cut who, from this point in the season, will fancy being in the race for Old Trafford when it truly heats up after 27 rounds.

Leeds Rhinos look like they will be there – and possibly as Super League leaders. That means Wigan Warriors, Hull KR, Wakefield Trinity, St Helens, Warrington Wolves and Leigh Leopards are all shooting for five of the remaining spots.

But who has the toughest run-in of the seven? We’ve crunched the data and worked it out..

How we’ve done it

We’ve taken the 10 fixtures for every club and added together the league positions for each opponent (eg Leeds would be 1, Huddersfield 14), then divided that figure by 10. That gives all of the seven clubs a score.

The lower the score, the harder the run-in – with the teams having the highest score possessing what should be, on paper at least, an easier run-in compared to their rivals in this instance.

We’ve also left out the game in hand for Warrington and Hull KR – which is a catch-up Round 2 fixture – and have taken solely the games from Rounds 18 to 27.

Without further ado, starting with the team with the toughest run-in..

7. Wakefield Trinity (currently 4th)

Games left: Hull KR (A), Bradford (A), Castleford (H), Catalans (A), Leeds (H), St Helens (H), Wigan (A), York (H), Warrington (H), Leigh (A)

It is Daryl Powell’s Trinity who, according to the data, has the toughest run-in left of any of the top seven in the race for the play-offs.

That starts as early as this week with a daunting trip to face reigning champions Hull KR. They also have to play every single one of the other six sides left in the mix, and they would hope to have a play-off place finalised before a tricky final fortnight at home to Warrington and away to Leigh – the latter of which could easily have consequences for both clubs.

They’ve been the story of 2026 so far, but it gets tough from hereon out for the Trin.

6. St Helens (currently 6th)

Games left: Toulouse (H), Catalans (H), Wigan (A), York (A), Hull FC (H), Wakefield (A), Castleford (H), Leeds (H), Leigh (A), Hull KR (H)

The Saints are being considered by many as the side Leigh Leopards can catch – and they have a much less favourable run-in than almost every other side, too.

They have to go away to three of the other seven in the hunt, including Leigh in the penultimate weekend. Their run-in is arguably going to be defined by a final three fixtures which sees them play Leeds, the Leopards and Hull KR. They will need to win at least one – perhaps more – of those games.

Could this be the year the Saints finally miss out on the play-offs?

5. Wigan Warriors (currently 2nd)

Games left: Warrington (H), Huddersfield (A), St Helens (H), Leigh (A), Toulouse (H), Bradford (A), Wakefield (H), Hull KR (H), Leeds (A), Catalans (H)

Like the Saints, there is a run of fixtures towards the end of Wigan’s run-in which could be decisive on multiple fronts. Home games against Wakefield and Hull KR before a trip to Headingley in the penultimate round could be season-defining.

There are slightly more favourable games elsewhere, but their derby reunion with St Helens followed by a trip across the borough to face Leigh at the end of this month also sticks out.

4. Leigh Leopards (currently 7th)

Games left: Castleford (H), Hull FC (A), Warrington (H), Wigan (H), York (H), Leeds (A), Bradford (H), Huddersfield (A), St Helens (H), Wakefield (H)

There is a positive asterisk attached to Leigh’s run-in – seven of their final 10 come at home, a place where they’re often much better than on the road.

One of their three away games is against Huddersfield too – but there are some standout teams travelling to the Leopards’ Den which means that while the Leopards’ run-in isn’t the toughest on paper, it certainly isn’t the easiest. They will hope to make some early ground over the next fortnight with games against Castleford and Hull before it really ramps up.

3. Hull KR (currently 5th)

Games left: Wakefield (H), Warrington (A), Hull FC (A), Bradford (H), Castleford (A), Catalans (H), Toulouse (H), Wigan (A), Huddersfield (H), St Helens (A)

NB. List does not include rescheduled Round 2 tie with Warrington Wolves on Tuesday August 18

The champions have got it all on to make the all-important top two – with the prospect of defending the League Leader’s Shield looking less likely by the week as Leeds march on.

However, their run-in is slightly better than some of the other teams around them. They play nearly all of the bottom five in the run-in with York the only exception. But in their final three matches, they have away trips to Wigan and St Helens sandwiched either side of a home game with Huddersfield.

Come late-August, the play-offs may well be starting early for the Robins.

2. Leeds Rhinos (currently 1st)

Games left: Catalans (A), Castleford (A), Bradford (H), Toulouse (H), Wakefield (A), Leigh (H), York (A), St Helens (A), Wigan (H), Hull FC (H)

It’s a very good time to be a Leeds fan right now – and the omens look incredibly good for them finishing top of Super League come the play-offs rolling around.

The Rhinos will fancy winning all of their next four fixtures – though in recent years, they have historically struggled against Catalans away from home. But if they do that, they’ll have one hand on top spot with six rounds left, given how so many of the other teams are still to play each other.

The finish is tough, with Saints and Wigan in the final three, but Rhinos fans will be quietly confident they’ll have got the job done before then in a run-in that is favourable.

1. Warrington Wolves (currently 3rd)

Games left: Wigan (A), Hull KR (H), Leigh (A), Castleford (A), Bradford (A), York (H), Huddersfield (H), Hull FC (A), Wakefield (A), Toulouse (A)

The Wolves’ form has dipped of late but according to the data, and based on everyones’ league positions, it is Sam Burgess’ side who have the most favourable run-in from here.

They still have to play all of the bottom six and while the immediate future looks tough with games against Wigan, Hull KR and Leigh in the month of July, after that, they will have some very winnable games through to the end of the season.

How high can the Wire finish?

NB. List does not include rescheduled Round 2 tie with Hull KR on Tuesday August 18