Origin I analysis: Daley’s plan pays off, but Billy shoots the Maroons in the foot

New South Wales tend to win big or lose. 

18-6, as the first game of State of Origin 2025 finished, doesn’t sound like a battering, but it was.

The Blues scored four tries to one, and had they brought their kicking boots, this would have been more demonstrative of the flow of the game, which was largely one way.

Queensland coach Billy Slater will have a lot of soul searching to do. His side were steamrollered by a big Blues forwards in the first half, leaving them unable to respond in the second.

The Queensland coach should start the review introspectively: he set his side up to fail with an undersized pack and a bench that gave him nowhere to turn.

Faced with Payne Haas in the middle and the excellent Zac Lomax out of the backfield, his boys looked small. Once NSW got that roll going, they turned the screw. Queensland didn’t bleed immediately, but they did eventually.

Laurie Daley, on return to the top job with his state, goes home happy but knowing his side can still do a lot better. They won at a canter without hitting top gear. 

It was highly conservative, but that is the prerogative of the team with the better players. A low-scoring game settled by moments of magic was always likely to favour the side with Nathan Cleary, who (kicking aside) was excellent, and Latrell Mitchell, who produced the best moment of the match with a superb pass for Brian To’o to score.

When Queensland struggled to change the tempo, Daley could. Spencer Leniu took over from Haas seamlessly, Hudson Young added chaos and Connor Watson iced the game late.

The Maroons’ thinking was muddled by the physical doing they took early on. Their worry for Game 2 will be that they were already outthought before kickoff.

Blues play the long game

As we hit 20 minutes, NSW had enjoyed most of the ball and all of the territory, but had barely tried to score. Isaah Yeo was playing as an auxiliary prop, seven runs from seven touches: no ball-playing here.

Conversely, Queensland hadn’t cracked the Blues’ 20m zone but were repeatedly spreading the ball. They knew that they had to change the conversation as the ball in play time rose and the fatigue of dealing with NSW’s middles and back three mounted.

In particular, they were targeting the area around Mitchell, and it was working. He is a fullback these days and rarely tested on lateral movement in defence, which Daly Cherry-Evans was more than willing to exploit.

While most had expected traffic along that channel as Latrell charged at debutant Robert Toia, it was actually the Maroons exploiting that bulk through fast ball movement. 

Then, we were all reminded of why Latrell gets picked. His pass to To’o for the Blues’ second try was as good as anything seen in the game, one majestic movement in midair. 

The game was peppered with on again, off again moments, but as is so often the case with Mitchell, his highs were high enough that his side won the game.

Those flashes of quality emerged on the back of grunt work that laid the platform.

They were happy to offer next to nothing for the first half of the first half, confident that they could win it before half time. 

This was the gameplan in action. NSW cracked 1,000m in the first half, put the fatigue into the game and cashed in late. Daley might have been pitch perfect that regard, but the door was flung wide open for him by Slater.

His decision not to pick a bench hooker looked worse and worse with every tackle that Harry Grant made.

The Blues knew that Grant would be key, so battered him at every opportunity. 

Payne Haas, from the start, knew what he was doing. On almost every run, he made a beeline for Grant. When Spencer Leniu came into the game, guess where he ran on his first carry? 

By the time the third try went in, Queensland had made almost 200 tackles, Grant responsible for a full 15% of them.

This was a blunting mission against the Maroons’ most important player, who was left exposed by his coach. 

With Grant’s club coach Craig Bellamy in the NSW box alongside Daley, it wasn’t hard to guess where the idea originated.

Queensland’s spine collapses

The Maroons were on the ropes as half time rolled around. They needed a break, both literally and figuratively, and got one as Brian To’o was adjudged to have tackled Xavier Coates in the air, earning himself a trip to the sin bin.

Queensland got nine and a half minutes of the second half to take on 12-men, but struggled to do so. They did cross the stripe, but only in transition following a Blues error. 

The best Queensland looked was while kicking at Jeremiah Nanai, who made Dylan Edwards look very uncomfortable indeed. 

As much as NSW had all the ball in the first half, it was inevitable that the momentum would shift.

It did, but when the moments came, Queensland didn’t have the attack to make it happen. Cameron Munster had a terrible game, belted by Liam Martin and Stephen Crichton at every opportunity, which in turn froze Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow out of the game. 

Kalyn Ponga couldn’t get himself involved, often touching the ball as attacks moved sideways without anyone straightening up.

Cherry-Evans was a little more successful on the left, but still ineffective. Grant was absent entirely, gassed and on the bench and Tom Dearden, his replacement, was out of position.

When they needed craft, there was none. NSW defended well, but weren’t asked anywhere near enough questions.