NRL Wrap: Raiders rule supreme, Ashes bolters and the coaching merry-go-round

26 down, one to go – and plenty still to play for.

The Minor Premiership is not one of them, as Canberra sealed that on Saturday afternoon, taking advantage of Melbourne’s second half collapse the night before to get the win they needed to ensure top spot on the ladder.

That Storm slide was at the hands of the Roosters, who are now favourites to claim the eighth and final post-season slot.

Manly did their bit but won’t be able to make up the necessary points difference to overtake – but the Dolphins will, after their win over the Titans. Easts go first next weekend with a derby against Souths, but if they stumble, the door is open for Redcliffe’s first finals appearance.

Further up, the Warriors choked and will almost certainly not take fourth. At the end of this week, Cronulla trail the Broncos on points difference, but that could all change next weekend.

At the other end, the Wooden Spoon is still in doubt as Newcastle lost again. If the Titans can get another victory, they may well leapfrog the Knights.

That’s the lay of the land – here’s the details on another topsy-turvy week in the NRL.

A good week for…

Raiders, obviously, who claimed their first Minor Premiership since 1990 amid emotional scenes in the capital. The JJ Giltinan Shield is a bit whatever for the big three – who are the only teams to have claimed it since the Bulldogs in 2012 – but for the Raiders, it’s a huge deal.

They, as you have no doubt heard, were tipped to come last year. Whether that is true or not is debatable, but you can tell that Ricky Stuart has had it bouncing off the walls at Belconnen all year.

Everyone knows that the hard work starts now, and that nobody remembers who won the Minor Premiership. But for this weekend, one of the most dedicated fanbases in the competition got a moment of joy that they’ll all remember. Isn’t that what all this is meant to be about?

A bad week for…

Sliding out of the top four and probably the finals are the Warriors, who lost badly to Parramatta on Friday night.

Their record in the last ten games is 4-6, and those four were victories over the Tigers, Knights, Dragons and Titans (whom they also lost to). It’s far from top four material.

Compounding the loss was the nature of it. The Wahs were robbed of a win by a shocking late Bunker call – Chris Butler, quelle surprise – in which Demitric Vaimauga was found to have knocked on a kick that he didn’t touch.

Coach Andrew Webster was understandably annoyed about it, but in truth, that his team could be cruelled in such a manner was entirely of their own making.

Now, they’re a clear win behind Cronulla and the Broncos, would need to make it up by beating Manly at Brookvale in Daly Cherry-Evans’ last game for the club.

More worrying still would be finishing sixth, which almost certainly means a first week meeting with the Panthers. Oh dear.

Standout…

Mark Nawaqanitawase and the Roosters, who all but booked a finals spot with a stirring second half showing in Melbourne.

Stirring, in fact, doesn’t do it justice. Trailing 0-10 at the break, they stuck on 40 unanswered points.

As a result, they have it entirely in their own hands next weekend against South Sydney – win, and they’re in.

The Bunnies will be motivated to turn up and have a crack, if only to ruin things for their great rivals, but on the form the Chooks showed this week, they’re no hope. Easts are rolling ominously towards the eight.

A large part of that is Nawaqanitawase, currently the form player in the competition. He got four tries on Friday to move clear of Xavier Coates in the tryscoring charts, and has 24 in 22 games as a rugby league player.

Crossing the stripe is great, but he’s also showing huge upside in his kick chase and offloading, which in turn buys space to run past blokes.

The defence is still dodgy, but Trent Robinson has forgiven that for years if the attack is there. With Marky Mark, it certainly is.

The big question will be at a higher level. He’s already being talked about as a potential Kangaroos tourist come the end of the year, either as a starter or a backup for Coates or Zac Lomax.

If he makes it, he’ll do so on merit. At the moment, Kevin Walters would be mad to leave Nawaqanitawase out.

Washout…

Souths didn’t play, but we can’t ignore Brandon Smith.

The hooker dominated the headlines after being questioned by Queensland police about drugs and insider gambling offences dating back to his time at the Roosters. He intends to contest them at a court hearing scheduled for mid-September.

There’s a lot to unpack in this.

Smith has had a long-standing gambling problem, which was an open secret within rugby league circles, and was known to the Roosters when they let him leave for Souths.

According to reports, Souths were well aware of it too, but they were willing to take the chance on a player they see as having a big onfield upside.

The drugs matter relates to incidents before Smith joined the Bunnies, which drags the Roosters back in. The offence is alleged to have been relating to a golf trip taken to the Sunshine Coast by seven Roosters players, whom Smith is alleged to have assisted with a cocaine purchase.

Roosters supremo Nick Politis, who has taken a zero tolerance policy against drugs, may be about to find out the hard way that he employs a lot of young, wealthy men from the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney.

The gambling matter is thought to be related to Smith’s debut, in which he allegedly told the drug dealer of team news, hence the insider knowledge.

That does concern Souths, and they will have to deal with the consequences of it all regardless of the if, when and how any offences occurred.

The NRL Integrity Unit is now involved, but as the matter does not meet the threshold for the No Fault Stand Down, Smith is free to play – and will, this coming Friday, against the Roosters.

That game, which was already vital in the finals picture, is now essential viewing for an entirely different reason.

Everyone is talking about…

Coaching, after a week of bloodletting.

Des Hasler was the first to go, departing the Titans in entirely predictable circumstances, then Adam O’Brien followed at the Knights, probably several years late.

Todd Payten lives to fight another season, but will do so with an almost entirely new backroom staff after the Cowboys hierarchy opted to give him one last chance.

Anthony Seibold will likely get the same at Manly – his contract is up anyway – because they can’t quite decide on who might follow him, but will do so with serious reservations from major figures within the club, most notably the Trbojevics.

Most of this was expected, and the most surprising bit was that it took this long to happen. Both Hasler and O’Brien will coach out the season, so technically nobody will have been sacked at all.

Perhaps that shows growth in boardrooms across the league. They know that, when you sack a coach, you blow up the whole season. You might as well leave it to play out a bit.

The Tigers famously punted Michael Maguire and then got worse, when they could have just continued and made a decision later on.

The trouble will come when, like in Seibold’s case, the team marginally improves. Manly could conceivably finish with three straight wins and only miss finals by a single game or even points differential.

Will the board see that as proof that the coach deserves another go around, or as false form when the pressure was off? Given the political machinations on the Northern Beaches, the coach might be the least of the issues anyway.

But nobody mentions…

Competition.

As mentioned above, the Raiders became the first club outside the Roosters, Storm and Panthers to finish first in the regular season since 2012. That’s damning for the week-to-week competition in a ruthlessly salary-capped sport.

In that time, other teams have won the comp – the Cowboys, Bunnies and Sharks, once each – which shows the diversity of results possible in the finals structure, but the inability of other teams to prove that over a long period is pretty damning.

One might point to the major failures as Souths, a truly massive club who have one second place and a couple of thirds, or the Broncos, arguably the biggest of the lot but with two seconds and a third in.

Of the other traditional powerhouses, Manly have one second place, Canterbury on third place (this year) and St George Illawarra none at all.

Rugby league is all about systems, which are built long-term and to last.

The only three coaches who are still in the same job they were when the run started in 2013 are Ivan Cleary (who went and came back), Trent Robinson, who started that year, and Craig Bellamy, who posted Game 600 as a coach this weekend.

Maybe all that hiring and firing isn’t what it’s cracked up to be.

Forward pass

The dominos will fall in a row for the final round of the regular season.

Thursday night in Brisbane will see the Broncos seal fourth place if they win, but with Melbourne in town and all their big guns likely back on deck, that’s far from a gimme.

If they fail to do so, the Sharks would get a chance to move in by overcoming Canterbury on Saturday night – and the Bulldogs are likely to rest everyone knowing that they can’t move.

Friday could see the Roosters book their place officially by beating Souths, but if they don’t, the Dolphins will get a chance to run up a score against a possibly second string Raiders – or a first string that’s been on the drink all week – to overcome enough points difference to sneak in.

In between, there’s the small matter of DCE’s Brookvale farewell on Friday teatime. Manly would have to win about 80-0 to have a finals chance, but they’ll want to send their captain out in style.

The Warriors, who have to win to keep their lingering top four hopes alive, stand in their way.