NRL Tips: Origin impact to cause chaos as coaching exit imminent

Mike Meehall Wood
NRL Round 12 Tipping

It's an Origin-impacted round in the NRL this week.

This column likes to pick out the best five games for the NRL fan to dip into over the weekend – which is very easy this time around, as there are only five to choose from.

It’s our first Origin affected round, meaning half the teams are in Bali, the Blue Mountains or wherever Queensland have their camp, which hopefully starts with a B. Biloela? Beaudesert? Bowen?

Our list is limited, but our possibilities remain endless. Let’s get into it.

Warriors v Canberra

We start at the end with what is possibly the only proper game of the round, as both sides are missing just one player from their preferred lineups.

Both Mitch Barnett and Hudson Young are in Blues camp, sort of cancelling each other out, so we get a genuine matchup between two frontrunners at what should be a pretty packed Mt Smart Stadium, with something on the line as well.

Canberra have made a habit of ruining parties on their travels this year and, with five wins from their last six, will bring bucket loads of confidence.

The Wahs won’t be phased. Led by Luke Metcalf, one of the form players of the competition, they’re on a five game winning streak and have lost just twice all year.

Then again, one of those defeats was to Canberra in Vegas. Revenge mission? It starts here.

Tip: Warriors

Canterbury v Dolphins

We start the round with our leaders, who face the Phins in Sydney on what could be quite a chaotic evening.

The Dogs have made a habit of miraculous comebacks, which is a great skill to have but does suggest that they’re giving up points to start with. That trend that generally ends eventually.

They lose Stephen Crichton, Max King and Kurt Mann to Origin, plus Jacob Kiraz and Daniel Suluka-Fifita to injury, while Jacob Preston – spotted moonlighting as a training mannequin at NSW camp this week – is still suspended.

That’s a lot of outs, and while the Dolphins lack Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Tom Gilbert, that’s about it.

It brings these sides a lot closer together in roster strength, which should make for a decent game. We’ll also get two of the best centres, Herbie Farnworth and Bronson Xerri, going head to head, which will be great fun.

Tip: Canterbury

Parramatta v Manly

Manly are usually heavily punished by Origin, as they stuck most of their to-heavy salary cap into four players who tend to get picked, leaving the rest of the blokes to sort it out.

This time around, however, they might have got the good end of the selection deal with their first short round.

They lose Daly Cherry-Evans, but Parramatta lose Mitch Moses, which at the very least is a cancelling out of both halfbacks and, in practice, probably a plus for the Sea Eagles given the importance of the Eels’ 7 to just about everything they do.

Zac Lomax, Parra’s best backfield option, is also in camp while Tom Trbojevic was omitted – some say on his preference given fitness issues – and will feature here. 

Brother Jake will sit this out with a concussion but Haumole Olakau’atu was only deemed good enough for an extended bench, so all going well in camp, he’ll be released to clubland.

Manly trounced the Eels earlier in the year and showed some signs of a return to form last week away in Townsville. If they’re serious at all, this is two points they need to pick up.

Tip: Manly

Roosters v Cronulla

Some clubs are traditionally slammed by Origin, but Cronulla aren’t one of them. For whatever reason, it doesn’t seem to matter how well they’re going – nobody gets picked for the big gigs.

This should be their time to shine, and entering this on the back of a statement win over Melbourne, confidence will be high.

Easts, however, are one of those who cop it. They’ve been middling this year – which in itself is better than many expected – and will lose five players anyway, with Connor Watson, Angus Crichton and Spencer Leniu lining up for the Blues, Lindsay Collins and Robert Toia for the Maroons.

A small mercy is that James Tedesco was overlooked, and that Nat Butcher is back to add starch to a much-depleted pack. Dom Young, who it had appeared had played his last game at the club, is also back on a wing, if only temporarily.

All in all, it should be a Sharkies victory – and the first of a few for them in this period.

Tip: Sharks

Panthers v Knights

There was a real statement game a few years ago when Newcastle, with nobody out, rolled up to Penrith, fielding essentially a deluxe NSW Cup team due to Origin callups, and lost anyway.

It was proof of the Ivan Cleary depth chart, but also the Knights’ ability to collapse in the face of the Panthers in just about any circumstance. 

Adam O’Brien has never defeated Penrith, and indeed, Newcastle have won just once in this matchup in the last decade, a 14-1-1 record including a draw in May 2020.

AOB needs to win to keep the wolves from the door: his side have been awful this season and the journey to our first sacking of 2025 seems well underway. He needs this.

Tip: Panthers