NRL Tipping: More Wests woes? Origin-impacted sides to struggle?

The final Origin short round of the year brings with it all the things we’ve come to know and love about these weeks.

There’s two great match-ups that likely won’t be, sure, but also two that could be absolutely anything, with the randomness bringing opponents closer in standard.

And, of course, there’s a total toss-up as well, a game that should be something but will probably be something else.

Which is which? You decide.

Bulldogs v Broncos

Easy to start at the beginning, where there is a classic of the should-be-good-but-won’t-be genre on Friday night.

Canterbury have been great all year, but were humbled for their first defeat of the season by the Broncos in Brisbane.

This time around, it is the Dogs who arrive off a defeat and the Bronx off a win, but then…Origin.

No Haas, no Carrigan, no Walsh v no Crichton, no Max King, no Kurt Mann, no Jacob Kiraz. Not even a Gehamat Shibasaki, perhaps the most unusual Origin call-up in years.

This could be absolutely anything, but you’d back the Canterbury system to win out.

Tip: Bulldogs

Raiders v Dragons

The Raiders generally avoid Origin impacts, what with a team that is half English and half Kiwi, but are down two here as Hudson Young, predictably, and Josh Papali’i, unpredictably, are in squads.

They’re lucky to face a Dragons side without Val Holmes to Origin and half a forward pack to injury.

St George Illawarra aren’t exactly crash hot at the best of times, but what they do well is usually negate opponents and then grind wins out of boredom.

Canberra are the experts at that and have a better middle, so they should take this on what will probably be, given the NSW weather of late, a shocking afternoon in the capital.

Tip: Raiders

Cowboys v Storm

If you thought eight missing in the Dogs-Broncos game was bad, how about nine in this one?

Four Cowboys and five Storm players miss this one, which could otherwise have been an interesting meeting of a side that struggles on the road and one that can, on their increasingly infrequent days, challenge in attack.

Melbourne’s depth is a lot better than North Queensland’s and they have enough Kiwis in key positions to get them through, but do not approach this one expecting anything other than an elite Queensland Cup game.

The best thing you can say about it is that the sides are at least equally weakened, but beyond that, it’s a great argument for standalone Origin weekends.

Tip: Storm

Roosters v Tigers

Here’s one for you: would you prefer five out, but you’re a decent team or one out, but you’re the Wests Tigers?

Jarome Luai would have been really, really useful here for Benji Marshall, who is increasingly under the pump.

To compound his issues, he lost Api Koroisau to a concussion, Tallyn da Silva to the Parramatta Eels and Heath Mason to suspension, leaving little space to manoeuvre in the spine.

Adam Doueihi will play 7 in the 6 jersey, having discovered that he at least knows where to stand when moved there against Manly, alongside Latu Fainu – 6 in the 7 jumper – who has completed 80 minutes in the NRL just once, last week.

Tristan Hope, who has even fewer NRL minutes, is the 9 but we will at least get Sunia Turuva at fullback, which is generally a lot of fun.

On the Roosters side, there’s two debutants and a host of youngsters, but you just know they’ll win by plenty anyway.

They’ve won the last eight straight by a combined score of 334-84, or an average score of 42-10, and the Tigers have scored four tries in their last four games v Roosters.

Tip: Roosters

Manly v Souths

Speaking of fun stats, here’s another: of the last five games between Manly and Souths, there have been four different venues, none of which have been at Brookvale Oval.

They’ve been to the bright lights of Vegas, Brisbane, Homebush and the Central Coast since last they squared off on the Northern Beaches.

The last time they met at the Fortress was during an East Coast Low – for non-Australians, that’s one of our periodic apocalyptic storms, much like the one we’ve had this week – meaning only 3,200 punters showed up.

Last year was peak Origin rubbish where Manly lost with Tommy Talau at five eighth, but the shoe is on the other foot this time around: they’re unaffected by rep footy while Souths are missing Latrell Mitchell to NSW camp and Cody Walker to another injury.

Pretty much everything else is subject to change for the Bunnies, including a potential debut for Brandon Smith, but with the Sea Eagles’ season on the line ahead of a very tough trot of fixtures, you’d have to think they’ll get themselves up enough to win.

Tip: Manly