NRL Tipping: Galvin drama, binfire Broncos and the Raiders to choke.. again

Just when you thought you got a respite from Origin, we’re already back at the squad announcements for Game 2.

That, at least, means we have an unaffected round with all eight games on the schedule, albeit (as they all are at this time of year) one overshadowed by the selection drama.

That will focus the attention on Queensland, where literally anything can happen given their dilemmas, but almost nothing will as that tends to be what the Maroons are like. 

It will be less vital for the Blues, though after the unfortunate ACL injury to Mitch Barnett that ruled him out of the rest of the season, they do have a major spot to fill.

This is a long weekend in NSW, which means a Thursday-Monday round, too – and as is often the case, our preview starts at the end.

Canterbury v Parramatta

This is the biggest game, but there’s an argument that the curtain raiser in the NSW Cup might end up being the more hotly anticipated fixture.

That’s only half joking: Lachlan Galvin, who has dominated the season’s gossip columns, is finally in Bulldogs colours, but was only given the 23 jumper and could theoretically feature in reserve grade. 

Ironically enough, it would be against Wests Magpies, whom he has already represented this year when he was unceremoniously dumped to reggies as punishment for trying to leave the Tigers.

It’s likely that Galvin will feature in the NRL in some capacity – maybe off the bench – and really, the whole thing is a bit of a sideshow because this is a Bank Holiday Monday match between two of the NRL’s biggest rivals and, at a push, the all-time regular season attendance record might go.

Still: transfer, eh. Dogs will win, whoever plays.

Tip: Bulldogs

Broncos v Titans

The one thing footy loves more than a transfer drama is a binfire, and boy howdy, have we got one in Brisbane.

The smoke is pluming upwards from Red Hill at the moment as the Broncos endure a ridiculous streak of six defeats in seven games. The knives are out for Michael Maguire, who quit Origin to take over at Brisbane and might find himself out on his backside before the series is settled. 

The good news for him is that he’s up against Dr Titans. The helpful Gold Coast are on an even worse run – seven defeats in eight – and, even by their low standards, that’s bad.

The bad news is that the Titans have actually won the last three meetings between the South Queensland rivals – and the obvious point that, were Madge to lose this one as well, it would be the ultimate indignity. 

It can’t go on like this, can it? Just ask Mick McCarthy.

Tip: Broncos

Tigers v Panthers

El Cattico is back and, for once, on a knife-edge.

The Tigers have defeated the Panthers on occasion in recent years – granted, in Origin or a monsoon – but it’s been a very long time since they were above them in the ladder going into a meeting. 

This is also the first club-level clash of great mates/partners in crime Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai, so should be great fun for fans of that sort of thing. Romey has been sick this week, but you’d hope for narrative’s sake that he plays.

There’s also Tito Turuva on the revenge mission, Api Koroisau with a crack at the NSW Blues hooking role after Reece Robson’s injury and, in between it all, two quite well balanced sides.

As Sunday 4pm kick offs go, this is a belter.

Tip: Panthers

Sharks v Warriors

These are the two Origin period specialists, as both rarely lose players, and a top five clash to boot. It’s all set for a classic in the Shire.

Then again, Cronulla are weird at the moment. You think they’ve turned the corner on flat track bullydom by beating Melbourne, then lose to a heavily depleted Roosters.

The Warriors are in good nick, having lost just three times all year, but they were also the only other top five sides that they have faced in Canberra (twice) and Melbourne. Who are the flat track bullies now?

The Wahs have won on their last two trips to Shark Park, though, and both in spectacular fashion.

In Luke Metcalf, they have the form halfback of the competition and one who the Sharks cut loose from their system. Addin Fonua-Blake has gone the other way, swapping Auckland for the Shire.

Narrative? Aplenty.

Tip: Sharks

Canberra v Souths

This should be a strong homecoming for the Raiders, who are now unexpected league leaders and will celebrate Josh Papali’i as their most capped player, overtaking Jason Croker in his 319th NRL appearance.

For most teams that would be the sign of certain victory, but Canberra have a huge record of choking on these occasions. 

When Papa crossed the 300 mark, they lost. The year before, they rested Jarrod Croker so he could be at home for his 300th…and they lost. Ricky Stuart’s 500th game as a first grade coach? 40-0 defeat.

History is there to be changed, of course, but they’ll need to do so against a Bunnies side looking close to their strongest after a long period of injury issues. 

Cody Walker is back and, whisper it quietly – their 1-7 suddenly looks really good. The casualty ward lists only Cam Murray and Peter Mamouzelos (and the yet-to-debut Brandon Smith) as missing from a potential best 17; 

Wayne Bennett loves an ambush. Canberra love a choke. It couldn’t happen, could it?

Tip: Raiders

Everyone else

The weekend starts as the perennial awful Knights take on the consistently inconsistent Sea Eagles. 

Manly have rested Tom Trbojevic – he’s not injured, OK! – and Jason Saab, who was listed as ill last week, is also nowhere to be seen. 

Neither were required to defeat Brisbane last week, and while they’re bad, Newcastle are probably worse…and Kalyn Ponga is also under an injury cloud, though they insist he’ll play. 

Perhaps Adam O’Brien and Anthony Seibold will discuss notes on playing their star fullbacks while injured when they clink their tins of Steel City in the sheds afterwards.

Our Friday 6pm game could be a decent one, with the Storm facing the Cowboys, but history suggests that it probably won’t. 

Melbourne’s record at home is exceptional – just three defeats in the last three seasons – and none against the Cowboys since the Preliminary Final of 2015.

North Queensland barely hung on last week against the Tigers and would have to put in a major performance to stand a chance against the Storm.

The Dolphins-Dragons game is inexplicably our headline act on Friday night, placing St George Illawarra in the top spot two weeks running. 

These two have split the difference so far in their four NRL level meetings, they’re both on a win-a-few, lose-a-few trajectory and will probably finish 11th and 12th. 

It’s as ho-hum as they come, but hey: Hamiso and Herbie v Gutho and Val? That could be fun! 

Tip: Storm, Manly, Dolphins