NRL Round 5 Predictions: Sydney derby tussle, Dogs to continue unbeaten and more

For Round 5, expect narrative to reign like the, err, rain rained last weekend in Sydney. 

We’ve got derbies, we’ve got second v fourth and we’ve got referees trying to remember the rules of rugby league football, with an expected crackdown on high tackles after last week’s aberrations.

For those tracking at home, this is already our second #crackdown of the year, following Round 1 & 2’s spate of roll ball penalties, so we’re at least keeping pace with previous years for periodically getting annoyed about some rules before forgetting them all over again.

Anyway, on the playing front things are looking up. 

Latrell Mitchell? Back. Nathan Cleary? Back. Jahrome Hughes? Back (sort of). Tom Trbojevic? Injured, of course.

That’s just a few of the threads we’ll be pulling this week. Here’s how to watch Round 5.

Manly v Melbourne

The DCE drama dominated last week, before a more traditional Manly problem took over with the injury of Tom Trbojevic midway through a routine win over Parramatta.

He’ll miss a month – a decent result in the end – and instead, Lehi Hopoate will deputise at the back. That worked well enough last year, when the young gun impressed on debut in a rousing Manly win.

In fact, the Sea Eagles have won three straight against the Storm. Melbourne come in on the back of a defeat in Sydney, losing to the Dragons, but will be pushing to get Jahrome Hughes on the field after his hand injury.

It’s two of the best sides in the comp, a long-standing, storied rivalry and a sunny Sunday afternoon at Brookvale Oval. How good.  

Tip: Manly

Roosters v Souths

The NRL’s oldest rivalry needs little narrative, but gets plenty extra through the return of Latrell Mitchell for his first appearance of 2025. 

The Book of Feuds between these clubs is legendary, and Trell Mit gets a chapter all his own: a double Premiership winner with the Chooks, he left them for their nearest and dearest in 2020 and has made a habit of doing something spectacular against them.

Fortunately for the Roosters, that has been something spectacularly bad – the elbow on Joey Manu that saw Mitchell’s 2021 season prematurely ended stands out – as often as it has been good.

Mitchell is always the centre of attention, but will be even more so than usual here – Wayne Bennett has named him at centre to retain the impressive Jye Gray at fullback, so expect plenty of involvement from the returning star.

Tip: Souths

Canterbury v Newcastle

The Dogs are 4-0, the only side to remain unbeaten so far, and will be looking to make it a perfect five to start the year in the late game on Sunday.

Their issue might be keeping men on the field. Last week’s win over Cronulla was ultra impressive, but their hard-edged style could well have backfired and the line between aggression and thuggery was well and truly pushed. 

Canterbury lost Sitili Tupouniua to suspension for this weekend’s clash with Newcastle after a needless shot on the stroke of full time, while referee Chris Butler was so off the mark in not binning Reed Mahoney that he has lost his gig this weekend.

Mahoney might well have gone earlier, too, for a high shot on Toby Rudolf, before attacking a prone Daniel Atkinson and inexplicably avoiding ten minutes.

The NRL have been shamed into action, so all eyes will be on how they deal with Mahoney, who is fast becoming the competition’s grub in chief. 

It’s all fun and games as long as you can stay on the field – as coach Cameron Ciraldo will be drilling into his charges ahead of Sunday evening.

Tip: Canterbury

Parramatta v St George

How bad can Parra be? The Eels are winless through four and haven’t at any point even been ahead of their opponents. They’ve started badly, got worse and then, with the game gone, got their points in garbage time.

Amazingly, the Eels have trailed 88-10 in first halves, but just 42-34 in second halves, so it’s clear where the problem lies.

St George Illawarra, in fairness, aren’t much better but did turn in a superb defensive outing to defeat Melbourne last week. They’ll be looking to build on that, and on the evidence of 2025 so far, will be confident of doing so. 

Parra have won the last three meetings, all of which have been played at CommBank Stadium – in fact all of the last five have, for reasons known only to the vagaries of scheduling – and the most recent, in August of 2024, was a frankly bonkers 44-40 scoreline.

Tip: Dragons

Penrith v North Queensland

Last week we went big on how long it had been since Penrith lost three games in a row, dating back to August of 2019. They duly were defeated by Souths, but annoyingly for narrative fans, the last time the Panthers lost four was only a few months before they lost three, in May 2019.

(For the record: Old Town Road was number one, John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum topped the box office charts, worth mentioning only to observe that the enshittification of cinema through permanent sequels isn’t even a new thing anymore.)

That specific game, a 30-10 defeat to the Warriors, featured Nathan Cleary, Brian To’o, Dylan Edwards, Viliame Kikau, James Fisher-Harris, Jarome Luai, Liam Martin and Moses Leota – all stalwarts of the dynasty that would follow.

Now, tellingly, only Cleary (who returns for this game) and the forward duo of Martin and Leota are named this weekend, with Edwards and To’o injured and the rest departed. For completists, Isaiah Papali’i also played, but for the visitors.

A notable absentee in 2019 was Isaah Yeo, who had just dislocated a shoulder. It’s notable because of how few injuries he has: this weekend will be his 250th NRL game, the first player to make that mark playing solely for the Panthers. 

It’s a historic moment for one of the best of the modern age, a champion on the field and a belting bloke off it. He deserves a win.

Tip: Panthers

Everyone else

The weekend begins in Canberra with the visit of Cronulla. Both teams lost last weekend, the Sharks in disappointing fashion to Canterbury and the Raiders in a slightly more excusable manner, given they were facing North Queensland in 35 degrees and 85% humidity – a fair home advantage.

Cronulla’s last two visits to the capital have a combined score of 80-10 in their favour, but it’s unlikely the Raiders will be so accommodating this time around.

The Gold Coast are our middle match on Saturday and will face a winless Dolphins. This is a prime chance to do the most un-Titanslike thing possible, which is to live up to expectations. 

Redcliffe have been rubbish and should be easybeats – so it’s absolutely nailed on that they’ll get their first win of the season against the flakiest flakes that ever flaked. Prove me wrong, Titans.

Up the road, Saturday rounds off with the Broncos defeating the Wests Tigers. It’ll probably be quite formulaic, a little pedestrian at times and will invariably end about 30-12 for the home side. 

The TV companies insist that Brisbane have to play in these high profile slots quite a lot, but this game should be 6pm Friday, no questions asked. 

Tips: Canberra, Titans, Broncos