NRL Round 4 Predictions: Panthers up and running, Tigers to roar and more

A month into the NRL and we’re already in rugby league bizarro world. Penrith are losing. The Tigers are winning. Daly Cherry-Evans is leaving Manly.

What’s next? An Ashes series? A Ryan Papenhuyzen injury cloud? All bets are off.

It’s all very weird and wonderful, and that’s before a ball has been kicked. Here’s what to look out for in the NRL.

Souths v Penrith

Thursday night is perplexing: Souths have 2-1 record to the Panthers’ 1-2, but you’d be hard pressed to say they’re in better shape.

The big story is probably Penrith, who have lost their last two games. They haven’t lost three in a row since August 2019.

If you like these things, Truth Hurts by Lizzo displaced Old Town Road in the charts and Angel Has Fallen (no, me neither) was top of the box office. The point is that it was ages ago.

We have our first Accor Stadium game of the year, but there’ll be no Nathan Cleary, who is in concussion protocols, and no Dylan Edwards, who is still injured.

Souths themselves lose a Campbell Graham but gain an Alex Johnston, with the record try scorer back after eight months out.

The Bunnies were thrashed by Cronulla and more than a little lucky in their two wins. Penrith were a lot better than their loss to Melbourne looked, but were humbled by a similarly underpowered Roosters. 

Oh, and it’s Ivan v Wayne in the boxes, which is a lot more dramatic than whatever Angel Has Fallen was. There’s narrative aplenty. Strap in.

Tip: Panthers

Manly v Parramatta 

The biggest noise of the weekend might be before the game at Brookvale Oval on Sunday afternoon. 

Daly Cherry-Evans, King of the Beaches and general chief Mugwump of Manly, announced his departure at the end of the year. Will he get booed? Will he be cheered? Will it matter?

Given that Parra have been completely useless, probably not. Manly have won six of the last seven against the Eels at home, and that included a fair period where Parramatta were good.

Tom Trbojevic is back, Manly generally score 7,000 points on home turf and are playing a side that are 0-3 so far. 

Then again, they’ve not had many weeks where their best player has said that he’s offskis, so anything can happen. 

Tip: Manly

Cronulla v Canterbury 

Theoretically, this is one of the best clashes of the season so far, two of the genuine contenders going head to head. 

Canterbury should be right up for it, with a perfect 3-0 record to start the year, but are shorn of Matt Burton, their senior half, and Viliame Kikau, a genuine gamebreaker. 

Last time out they dealt with a poor Parra, but hardly set the heather alight. Cronulla, on the other hand, looked a million bucks in dealing with Souths.

Cameron Ciraldo’s men trade first and foremost on defence, and while Cronulla’s rearguard is improving, they are fundamentally about high motion attack. 

It’s a proper clash of styles and, even if the Dogs’ top talent isn’t there, this should be a good barometer on where two of the top six are at.

Tip: Cronulla

Broncos v Dolphins

Are Brisbane good? Are the Dolphins that bad? They say formlines go out of the window in a derby, so maybe it doesn’t matter. 

The Bronx are 2-1 but have played two really bad teams and lost to the only side that showed any resistance. The Phins, while generally underwhelming so far, will at least fire up for El XXXXico. 

Redcliffe should have won last weekend but bottled the second half to let the Tigers back in. Then again, the Broncos did that against the Cowboys, who are even worse. 

On paper, Brisbane have too much firepower, but this has ambush written all over it. If the Dolphins can show starch and get up the field, they can do it. It should be entertaining whatever happens.

Tip: Brisbane

Tigers v Warriors

Much as the Panthers haven’t lost three in a row since 2019, the Tigers haven’t won three straight since 2018. Go on then: 2,500 days, God’s Plan by Drake and Black Panther. 

Wests are riding the crest of the wave that can only come from beating two winless sides. Jokes aside, making it a third and defeating the Warriors, who are 2-1, would actually mean something and show that progress has been made in 2025.

The side are healthy, the form is good and their spine is coming together nicely. Expectation is never high among a fanbase well accustomed to pain, but it is growing.

The Wahs themselves are on a bit of a run, having knocked off Manly and the Roosters back to back, but crucially, both were in Auckland. Their travel sickness isn’t as big a problem as it has been in the past, but they’ll want to keep going and underline their case for the finals. 

Has a Sunday night game in Campbelltown ever been a blockbuster? Probably not, but this might be the first.

Tip: Tigers

Everyone else

Our quick scan around the grounds starts in Sydney’s East, where the Roosters face the Titans in a game with Friday 6pm written all over it. The Gold Coast got their first win last week, so there’s that, but haven’t won away to the Chooks in over a decade. Easts to win.

On Saturday, a red hot Melbourne face a so far hapless Dragons, so there’s that. Even with Jahrome Hughes out, Ryan Papenhuyzen facing a fitness test and 60mm of rain scheduled for kick off time, this is only going one way.

Up in Townsville, the Cowboys will attempt to salvage something against a Canberra side who were towelled up by Manly but have generally looked competent. 

Both are drabber than drab, however, and though well-balanced, this will either be a serious arm wrestle or North Queensland will collapse.

Tips: Roosters, Storm, Canberra