NRL Round 3 Predictions: Grand Final rematch, Eels to struggle, Warriors upset

Prior to Round 1, the thought was that the NRL might not be that competitive this year, with some clearly good teams and everyone else either bad or rebuilding.

The first games proved that point, with far more thrashings than we are accustomed to, but the second run through upended it, as upsets dominated.

So what of Round 3? The narratives are starting to form that will define the early part of the season, and some of them are about to clash head-on. Let’s get into it.

Melbourne v Penrith

We start at the start, with Thursday’s Grand Final rematch the standout tie of the round.

The hype would have been stratospheric had Penrith put a score on the Roosters last weekend, as many expected them to do, but instead they succumbed to one of the biggest upsets in NRL history.

Melbourne, on the other hand, had a week off to plan for the Panthers after starting the year with a glorified practice run against a dreadful Parramatta.

The Storm are favourites, but they have been a fair few times against Penrith and still lost – most recently, of course, in the Grand Final.

The question will be whether their form is real and whether last week was a blip for the Panthers, who have struggled in the early rounds before, or a sign of a more permanent decline.

Tip: Melbourne

Manly v Canberra

Close up as the tie of the round is the final game on Sunday night, where Manly will take on Canberra.

Manly would have predicted the Sea Eagles to be 2-0, but it is the Raiders who enter unbeaten having defeated the Warriors in Vegas and the hotly-tipped Broncos on home soil last time out.

Those same Wahs did for Manly in Auckland, who were very flaky in following up on their Round 1 thrashing of the Cowboys. They also lost Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic before the end, without whom they can achieve nothing.

Both are named to play this week – though Turbo is 50/50, according to coach Anthony Seibold – so expect a backlash from Manly on home turf.

Adding to the narrative is their record at Fortress Brookvale, where they were very strong last year – except against Canberra, where they led 24-6 but were run down by an Elliott Whitehead-inspired Raiders.

It should be a great clash of styles. Manly are ultra-attacking, but a bit boom-and-bust, whereas Canberra perhaps have a lower ceiling but compete harder than anyone. If Turbo and DCE play, you’d tip Manly, but if they don’t it’s the Raiders going 3-0.

Tip: Manly

Parramatta v Canterbury

How bad can Parramatta be? Whacked in Melbourne, humbled at home to the lowly Wests Tigers and now facing another of their traditional rivals, Canterbury, who are 2-0. Hopes aren’t high at CommBank Stadium.

The Dogs have impressed in both of their outings, but lost Matt Burton and Viliame Kikau to injury and will have to rethink their playmaking options for the next month or so. Given that playmaking is generally their weakest point, that might be an issue.

Luckily for Cameron Ciraldo, every bit of the Eels looks weak so far. Dylan Brown might be worth $13m (in Newcastle at least) but he’s had nothing to work with so far.

For narrative fans, Josh Addo-Carr might debut for Parra on the wing – he’s named in the extended squad – against his old club, while ‘Footy Dean’ Hawkins, who was eaten up and spat out of a poor Souths last year, will get a crack at the Eels in the 7.

Tip: Canterbury

Broncos v Cowboys

Brisbane are not a team who will ever lack for headlines. They need only win one game and they’re touted for the Premiership, but if they lose, the sky is falling in. That’s what happens when the bulk of your golden era talent pool now works in the media.

After smashing the Roosters first up, they were mainlining straight to the Grand Final, but the performance didn’t really back up the scoreline. Duly, faced with a more resilient Canberra, the Bronx wilted.

Thankfully for them, they’ll face a much more malleable opponent in North Queensland. The drumbeat is growing already on coach Todd Payten after a disastrous start to the year.

He dropped star forward Jeremiah Nanai last week to send a message, but has now recalled him while dropping rookie Tom Duffy from the halfback role in favour of Jake Clifford. It’s all very chaotic and rarely ends well.

Tip: Brisbane

Warriors v Roosters

The weekend’s most unpredictable fixture sees last week’s upsetters face off in Auckland. The Wahs ambushed Manly, finally putting together some attack after a year or so of playing far too conservatively, while Easts stunned Penrith with a ragtag bunch of youngsters.

They won’t be so diminished this time around, as Victor Radley, Spencer Leniu and Lindsay Collins all return, but will run into a Kiwi team flowing with confidence.

It’s easy to reduce the Warriors to their ongoing stereotype of brilliant/awful week to week, but perhaps more than any other team in the comp, they run on confidence.

Their defence tends to be decent but the attack is pedestrian – or at least, it is until they get a roll on, at which point Wayde Egan starts darting from dummy half, Luke Metcalf gets space to play in and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck actually touches the footy.

If that version of the Wahs shows up, then watch out. If not, then the Chooks should have the firepower to win, as they have done on their previous 8 meetings with the Warriors.

Tip: Warriors

Everyone else

There are other games, of course. Souths would not have been predicted to go to Cronulla with a better record than the Sharks, but remain unbeaten. Their hosts, however, have looked a lot more ominous and will go in as favourites.

Newcastle were also not tipped by many, but are 2-0 as they travel to face the Titans. If Ponga is on form, so are the Knights, but if he has an off-night, then the points will dry up.

After the bye in the first week, Des Hasler’s men went down to Canterbury – no shame there – but showed exactly the sort of defensive frailty that has held them back for years. They’ll post points, but as ever, it’s about the other side of the ball and whether Newcastle can exploit the clear issues with tackling.

Our final game is the Dolphins v Tigers – the first a side already looking old and bereft of confidence, the second very young and brimming with it following last week’s win over Parramatta.

Logic would dictate that Wests will travel to Redcliffe and turn a good result into a longer period of form, but these are exactly the sort of games that they lose year after year.

The Phins, on the other hand, need to scrape a victory from somewhere and, after a disrupted start due to Cyclone Alfred hitting their home base, will finally have enjoyed some normality this week.

Tips: Sharks, Knights, Dolphins