NRL Round 24 Predictions: Finals hopes to disappear with upsets looming

Indigenous Round 2.0 is here and it is shaping up to be one of the most consequential of the season.

Canberra are sitting pretty at the top and have the weekend off, but every position from them down to tenth is in dispute, with real finals and top four ramifications.

Moreover, we’re going to get a lot of it at the same place, with the first Gadhu Gathering, a celebration of First Nations rugby league, taking place at Allianz Stadium.

That means the Roosters on Friday night against the Dogs, Souths v Parra on the Saturday and then Wests Tigers v Manly on Sunday, with the Tigers v Dragons in the NRLW there too.

It should be great – and if you think this is all a little Sydney-centric, there’s the small matter of a Brisbane derby too. Oh, and before it all – well, let’s get into it.

Panthers v Storm

Our first game is a massive one, slated for Western Sydney on Thursday night.

Penrith are officially on the charge and have won nine straight, catapulting themselves into the top four. Their last few have been a little soft, but this run also included a victory over the Bulldogs and one away in Auckland during Origin.

Now the rubber hits the road with the Storm, then Bulldogs, then Raiders in back-to-back weeks. Win those and the competition will be terrified ahead of the finals, if they aren’t already.

Finishing fourth is also vital, and any slip up here invites Cronulla to overtake them later in the weekend. Ivan Cleary will not want that to happen.

Melbourne roll into town a little depleted. Jahrome Hughes is still out and Ryan Papenhuyzen has suffered a mystery concussion – if it was in a match, nobody noticed, but might have been in training – so also misses.

The backline is all over the place but with Cameron Munster finding form and Harry Grant in one of his imperial phases, the Storm won’t think themselves as the underdogs, even if the bookies currently disagree.

For one, their record in regular season footy against the Panthers is good – they’ve won the last three – although Penrith, of course, might point to ending the Storm’s season in both of the last two.

Tip: Panthers

Roosters v Bulldogs

The tension only ratchets up into our second game.

Easts are at home and absolutely need to win to keep pace with the Dolphins – who they thrashed last week – as well as shutting the door on Manly, whom they thrashed the week before.

It tells you a lot that, despite defeating their nearest rivals, it is still very precarious for the Roosters. Form is form, however, and at this time of year, it is like gold dust.

Canterbury are in a fair bit of it themselves, an aberration in the wet against a fired-up Wests Tigers aside, and will go east well knowing that they can pile pressure on the Raiders above them.

As the Storm will have already played, the Dogs will also have a clear idea of what is needed to stay in the race for second, which will bring the double whammy of securing a home final in the first week and, in all likelihood, avoiding it being against the Panthers.

As a standalone clash, this brings the best defensive side head-to-head with one of the most attacking, who also know that they need desperately to win. It should be a cracker.

Tip: Bulldogs

Broncos v Dolphins

Less of a cracker but no less tense will be the Battle of Brisbane/El XXXXico/The Sunshine State Showdown/Conflict on Caxton (hat tip: Maroon Observer).

Both of these sides are riddled with injuries and coming off a loss, which means neither will be close to their best. It doesn’t really matter though, and the wounded animal vibes will be strong.

Adam Reynolds, Ezra Mam and Selwyn Cobbo all did their hamstrings last week. The Phins’ list of outs is even longer, and includes Herbie Farnworth, Felise Kaufusi and Jack Bostock. It’s patched-up halves v patched-up everything, and no less enticing for it.

Redcliffe absolutely need the two points, either to stave off the Roosters (if they triumph on Friday) or to keep Manly at bay (should they win on Sunday).

If both results go the Phins’ way, they could go a long, long way to securing a first ever finals spot, and by seriously wounding their biggest rivals too.

Brisbane have no halves and are shattered. Their coach is struggling to show he’s any better than the bloke that got sacked last year and his players are dropping like flies with suspicious muscle strains, each of which only underlines his reputation for overtraining.

They have a bit of a finals buffer, but lose and they’d be in eighth and officially hanging by a thread, potentially ninth if the Chooks make a big enough dent in points differential.

The bums are squeaky and Brisbane are a side that loves a collapse. Watch this space.

Tip: Broncos

Manly v Tigers

Manly are in the last chance saloon but get the benefit of playing third, so they will at least know what they need to do come kick off.

With their season on the line, they have reverted to their most successful backline – Tom Trbojevic at fullback, Lehi Hopoate on the wing, Reuben Garrick in the centres – after weeks of tinkering around to try and find points.

The issue, at its heart, is that whatever configuration they pick, they haven’t played with enough adventure to actually get the footy to their speed merchants in space.

Fortunately, the Wests Tigers might afford them that. This is a team that has had its emotional high in winning the Lachlan Galvin revenge game and, really doesn’t have much to play for.

That was also the case last year when the Sea Eagles spectacularly choked on a Thursday night at Leichhardt Oval, so Manly will be on their guard. It’s win or out for them.

Tip: Manly

Warriors v Dragons

The last finals-adjacent game sees the wounded Warriors return to New Zealand to take on a Dragons side who are officially in wrecking mode.

St George Illawarra are 11th and not mathematically out of the eight, but it would take a surprising turn of results for them to gain enough ground to make a late push.

Then again, it was also very surprising that they turned over the ladder-leading Raiders and top four Sharks in successive weeks.

Make that a hat trick with victory here and things start to look very interesting indeed – not least if the Roosters, Redcliffe and Manly all lose, which isn’t impossible.

It’s probably too late, but St George Illawarra still have to play Manly, the remnants of Souths and a Panthers side that might rest players in the final week. Winning out might just happen, and doing so would give them a serious chance.

The Wahs just need to win at all. They are fully limping over the line and, while it would take them losing every game to miss the eight, that doesn’t seem entirely out of the reckoning.

Win here and they’re in, then they can focus on getting as many blokes back as possible before the knockout stuff starts.

Tip: Bulldogs

Everyone else

Our other three games can be categorised as follows: inconsequential but fun, inconsequential but boring and inconsequential.

The fun is to be found on Saturday night, where the Rabbitohs and Eels face off as the Gadhu Gathering showpiece.

Granted, this might have been expected to be more of a blockbuster when it was announced months ago rather than 13th v 16th, but the riderless horse element should at least make it entertaining.

Indigenous Round is always a big one for Souths, who more than anyone make First Nations Australians part of their club lore, and they’ll remember when they were in first place a few years ago, only to lose to Parra and eventually miss the finals.

The Eels are improving from a low base and, currently, are a lot of dumb fun to watch – even if you end up shouting abuse at them like Mitch Moses so eloquently did, multiple times, to Tallyn Da Silva last week.

Cronulla, on the other hand, are either competent and boring or incompetent and rubbish.

Whichever shows up should be enough to defeat a Titans side that managed to lose to the injury-ravaged ghost of South Sydney last week, but who knows – maybe this will be the one week every month where the Gold Coast decide to tackle. It’s always a chance.

Lastly, the Cowboys will play the Knights. We won’t go into any detail on it, and neither should you.

Suffice to say that a match of rugby league football will take place and there’s almost certainly something better that you could be doing.

If you’re in Australia, they’re showing a UB40 concert on NITV at the same time, or muscle cars on SBS, or an Escape to the Country double header on Seven.

If you’re in England – just have a lie in. You deserve it.

Tip: Parramatta, Cronulla, North Queensland