NRL Round 23 Predictions: Bulldogs bounce back, finals hopes end and a Spoonbowl for the ages

Round 23 sees the NRL embark on one of its best weeks of the year, celebrating Indigenous Australians and the huge impact that the first peoples have had on the game in Australia.

It’ll take us from Naarm on Thursday night to Mulubinba and Kanbarra on Friday, from Gadigal to Kau-in-Kau-in and back to Wangal on Saturday before the lands of the Yugambeh and then Burramatta to round us out – and yes, Burramatta means ‘place of the Eels’, from which the footy team derive their name.

This is the first of two Indigenous Rounds this year, held a lot later than usual, and with huge importance on the finals race. 

With four rounds remaining and either 12 or 13 wins likely the target, we could see Manly depart should they lose, and potentially the Roosters too. Let’s start there.

Dolphins v Roosters

This is a re-run of Redcliffe’s first ever game, so perhaps it’s appropriate that it could be the one that seals a first spot in the finals.

If Manly lose – more on which next – then this is a straight shootout for Easts, who would have to beat the Dolphins to stand any chance – not just because it’s a four-point swing either way, but also because the Phins bring over 150 points in extra differential to the table.

The good news for the Chooks is that they’re favourites, just about, thanks to the injury to Herbie Farnworth that robs Redcliffe of their best player. They won this game earlier in the year, too, their home match but played in Brisbane as part of Magic Round.

Despite losing the first meeting of the sides, they’ve won the three since and have scored at least 30 points in all of them. A bit of pressure goes a long way, though – so let’s see who copes best.

By the time this starts on Saturday teatime, we’ll already have an answer on Manly’s hopes, so at least everyone knows what they’re doing. 

If the Sea Eagles and Roosters win, all bets would be off with three teams on ten victories. For the sake of narrative, let’s have that, please.

Tip: Roosters

Canberra v Manly

Manly’s record is as dumb as it comes: two defeats were preceded by three wins (including one in Melbourne) which followed two defeats to cellar dwellers which came after smashing the Broncos.

Logic is not their friend, so don’t listen to anyone who tells you they know what to expect on this trip to Canberra. 

The Raiders, for their part, had won nine straight and were cruising before a shock loss to St George Illawarra. Losing to the Dragons in inexplicable circumstances? Manly have already completed it, mate.

The positive for the Sea Eagles is that they have an equally inexplicably good record against the Raiders: they’ve gone 11-4 over the last 15 games and 10-4 over the last 20 years’ worth of visits to the capital. 

They also really, really have to win, which does tend to move the needle in rugby league. Lehi Hopoate is out so Tom Trbojevic returns to fullback and thus might actually touch the ball in attack, which can’t hurt either.

Canberra will be much as they have been all year, which is to say, very good. They’re basically full strength – of a realistic best 17, only Matty Nicholson is out (he has been for ages) plus Savelio Tamale, a rookie.

The Raiders are favourites, but Manly have a lot to play for. If they’re remotely serious, now would be a good time to show it.

Tip: Canberra

Dragons v Sharks

Our other variable going into the last month of the season is the top four, and we can expect some serious movement there this weekend.

One could argue that it has already happened, as the two defeats for the Warriors in recent weeks have seen Cronulla overtake them on both wins and points differential, but because of the stupid way that the NRL calculates its ladder, not quite yet where it matters.

We could spend all night discussing how and why Byes are included in the standings, but for all intents and purposes, the Sharkies are already ahead even with a week off still to come. 

They travel to rivals St George Illawarra knowing that they need to keep the momentum up. The Dragons have nothing to play for, but would undoubtedly find it hilarious to throw a massive spanner in the works for their traditional enemies.

Oh, and if both the Sharks and the Warriors lose, we might get a four-way face-off for fourth – so, much like with the finals fight, let’s hope for that narrative hilarity to ensue.

Tip: Sharks

Bulldogs v Warriors

After a poor showing last week, you can bet that the Bulldogs will be back with a bang for a home tie against a wounded Warriors.

The Kiwis arrive on the back of a dispiriting defeat in the last second to the Dolphins, which itself came on the back of a dispiriting defeat to the Gold Coast. Spirits, err, aren’t high.

The big story, as ever, is Lachie Galvin. Not content with plastering his name everywhere for signing for Canterbury, then playing for Canterbury, now we get to discuss whether he’s fit to feature too. The half is carrying a knock to his hand, but should suit up.

The Wahs managed to name a 1-6 with four double-barrelled surnames (and another two on the bench) but none of them are James Fisher-Harris, who is only good enough for the extended squad thus far. 

As the Sharks game precedes this one, Andrew Webster will already know what his side need to do. If the result becomes imperative for their top four hopes, the Fish might be pressed into action.

Tip: Bulldogs

Storm v Broncos

Our first game is also finals relevant, so let’s finish there. If Brisbane overcome the habit of a lifetime and win in Melbourne, they would move into fourth before Cronulla or the Wahs have even played.

The trouble is that their record in Victoria is horrendously bad. They’re on their worst ever losing streak there, eight straight dating back to 2016, and have an overall record of 22-6 against the Storm. 

In fact, though the Bronx won at AAMI Park on their first visit in 2010, they have added just two victories in their 15 since.

Both teams have been slightly out of form of late, defeating some poor sides and slipping up against others. The talent is all there, but performances haven’t been.

As ever, if you’re backing a team to find a bit of form, it’s Melbourne you’d go for. Or the one that doesn’t have Trent Barrett on the coaching staff. Whichever floats your boat.

Tip: Storm

Everyone else

Spoonbowl: Is there any word more thrilling to the human soul?

That’s what we’ll get on Sunday lunchtime on the Gold Coast – along with Campbelltown, the spiritual home of Spoonbowls.

Yet it is Souths, or what remains of them, who arrive looking to dodge the cutlery and condemn their opponents to another year of it. 

The spoon hasn’t been cardinal and myrtle since 2006, when an all-timer bad Bunnies side picked up just three wins all year. 

Last was the last year without the Titans in the comp, but these things are a more regular occurrence in Southeast Queensland and they’ve had two since, but none since 2019.

The Rabbitohs have 11 first graders out but bring Brandon Smith onto the bench and Latrell Mitchell into the extended squad, which you have to think means he’ll play. It probably won’t be enough.

The Panthers are also in action, defeating Newcastle in presumably controversial circumstances with their trainer kicking a match-winning penalty goal, while on Sunday, a truly meaningless clash to round out the weekend will take place in Parramatta, where the Cowboys are guests.

Tip: Titans, Parramatta, Penrith