NRL Predictions: Manly upset, Roosters in the mire and Raiders to rout the Knights

It’s not quite moving day in the NRL, but we’re getting quite close to it.

Moving Day, for those not up to date with peak TV/Test cricket (what if Test cricket is peak TV?), is the episode of a long-running series where everything that has been threatening to happen happens all at once. It’s Day 4, where the first three days make sense and set up the fifth.

The NRL has had their early season kills, the sides that can’t and never could make the finals, then their secondary characters, four of whom left us last week. 

Now, the maths are simple. You need 12/13 wins to make the eight and there are seven rounds left – and we know that nobody wins 100% of games, so we take that in account too.

Our floor last week was seven wins, which now rises to eight by the end of this round. 

The Wests Tigers are the only side on seven and therefore can be eliminated this week, but a failure to win would put the Roosters, on eight, squarely in the gun for Round 22. Manly, Penrith and the Dolphins all have nine and thus a little headroom.

That’s the storyline: here’s the dramatis personae.

Bulldogs v Manly

Manly have now won three on the spin, including a victory in Melbourne that, while not quite of the statement variety, at least deserved recognition as perhaps their best of the year.

Then again, they’ve beaten Canberra – which few can say – and Penrith and Brisbane, results that get better every week. Not for the first time under Anthony Seibold, Manly look better against better opposition.

That might help them this weekend with Canterbury honing into view. The Dogs have been great all year, but less brilliant of late, winning their last two by tight margins against lowly opposition and losing the two before that.

It’s enough to convince you that something might happen here. It’s the best defence against an attack that, if not the best on paper, certainly has a high ceiling. This should be a belter.

Tip: Manly

Roosters v Storm

Easts underwhelmed last weekend in losing to Cronulla, as did the Storm in defeat at home to Manly.

Someone is due a backlash, and the smart money would be on Melbourne. They’ve got men back, a point to prove and a great record against the Roosters.

The Chooks are at home, but have lost a few bodies to injury – Victor Radley and Billy Smith chief among them – necessitating a bit of a reshuffle.

Trent Robinson knows, however, that his side have very little margin for error with the finals the way they currently are. If they lose and Manly win, it’s almost over.

Lose at all and, with kinder fixtures for Cronulla and Penrith, things look quite bleak. Motivation is a hell of a drug in rugby league and his side should have plenty of it.

Tip: Storm

Panthers v Tigers

This is a clash with consequences for both the logjam and the last chance saloon: Penrith are well in the finals hunt but have little leeway to slip up, while the Tigers kept themselves going in unlikely circumstances last week thanks to Adam Doueihi’s field goal late against the Titans.

Logic would dictate that Penrith can end the season of so many of their former players, but this fixture, frequently top v bottom, hasn’t always conformed to that.

There’ll be narrative everywhere regardless. 

Four Panthers Premiers start for the Tigers, – which could be six by kick off – and they’re face an all former-Tiger back row and a former Tigers head coach.

Tip: Panthers

Broncos v Eels

Brisbane have had a week off and return to action with what should be a gimme against a listing Parramatta.

But: but. This Eels side aren’t quite as bad as they look, and put the willies up both Penrith and Canberra before ultimately losing.

They get Mitchell Moses, consistently their best player, back for a trip to Brisbane, against whom he has a huge 10-6 record, better than anyone else except the Wests Tigers and the Warriors.

Parra are in the chaotic territory of not really having anything to play for, but also a lot of players with something to prove and a coach who can give them freedom to play.

On one hand, you can see them getting done by 50. On the other, they could cause a huge upset. Brisbane have improved of late, but this is exactly the sort of game they have already lost at home this year – to the Dragons, Souths, Penrith and the Roosters.

Consider the ambush set. It’s up to Michael Maguire not to walk right into it.

Tip: Broncos

Souths v Sharks

Morbid curiosity means that we have to mention Souths’ meeting with Sharks, which should really be taking place in Randwick Hospital rather than Gosford Stadium

The Bunnies have, by a conservative count, ten first graders missing. They’re on the bones of their arse so much that Lewis Dodd will actually start in the 7 jumper. Lol, jk: they’ve actually named him several times this year and he’s yet to run on with the boys for kick off.

Cronulla have plenty to play for, up against a wounded opponent – metaphorically and literally – who, if they weren’t struggling enough, have moved the game to a neutral venue on the Central Coast. They can’t possibly lose, which is exactly when the Sharks tend to do so.

It’s a car crash waiting to happen – but for who, Chris Kamara?

Tip: Sharks

Everyone else

Let’s rattle through the chaff, and with season’s already wrapped up early for the bottom four, there’s plenty of it.

Two of the also-rans meet in a very appropriate Friday 6pm clash in Townsville as the Cowboys host the Dragons.

Todd Payten already looks like a dead man walking, but a defeat at home to a St George Illawarra side with nothing to play for should make the Cowboys’ board’s mind up for them.

The Raiders will finish in the top four, almost certainly the top two and probably the top one, while Newcastle won’t be looking further than the Bali swim-up bar come October. They meet on Sunday in a game that is definitely taking place.

The Warriors do need to stay in the top four hunt, but should have no problems doing so this weekend with a visit from the Titans. Unfortunately, this game is taking place in New Zealand, not on the Gold Coast where so many Wahs fans live.

Tip: Cowboys, Raiders, Warriors