NRL Round 20 Tipping: Finals hopes to fade, Dolphins to dominate and more Parra woes

The ski-jump is finally underway, with nothing but downhill all the way to the finals.

Our first triple round – NRL, NRLW and Super League concurrently – means that it’s wall to wall footy this weekend, with something like 20 live matches available on traditional telly this weekend, depending where you are in the world.

The NRL is already pretty much in knockout mode, with the Titans already gone and four teams likely to get the line put through them before the weekend is out – so let’s start our preview there.

Dolphins v Cowboys

The door to the last chance saloon is open, and someone is walking out of it with nothing.

The Cowboys travel south with their season on the line, knowing that they will likely require at least six wins from their remaining seven to make the eight. That’s as many as they’ve managed all season so far.

While a defeat wouldn’t totally rule out the Dolphins, it would make life a lot more difficult. They’re on eight victories, but with trips to Auckland, Manly and another Broncos derby to come, this is one they need to bank.

They’ll do it with troops out: Kulikefu Finefeuiaki and Mark Nicholls are the latest to join what is now nine nailed-on first teamers on the treatment table.

The Cowboys have had to do a bit of surgery themselves, particularly in the backline, but welcome back all their Origin stars. They’ll need them.

Tip: Dolphins

Bulldogs v Dragons

Also on their final straw are the Dragons, who travel to Accor Stadium on Saturday teatime looking for a bit of a miracle.

The Dogs have looked imperious, and while St George Illawarra have given some indication that they have levels to go up, that has been sporadic at best. Wins over Melbourne, Brisbane and Manly are undermined by some dispiriting defeats and outright thrashings.

Shane Flanagan’s men are currently worse off than last year – never a good sign for a year two coach – and trending downwards. His son Kyle, so often the lightning rod, returns to the club where he performed that role more than anywhere else.

On the Canterbury side, Toby Sexton has been dropped for Lachlan Galvin, so the potential for a large petard hoisting is there.

They’ll tell you that the future starts here – others might point out that this season has been as good as they’ve looked in years, and probably not the time to be messing around.

Tip: Bulldogs

Sharks v Roosters

These two met at the start of Origin, in what should have been a slam dunk for the Sharks.

They had nobody out, Easts were missing half a team. The 42-16 scoreline in favour of the Roosters proved how unserious Cronulla were. Losing three of the next four didn’t help much, either.

That was then. Now, they’re fresh off the back of *checks notes* one win and things might be different. Nicho Hynes starred against Redcliffe last week, so he’s back, and the middle didn’t collapse, which is great.

The Roosters have been up and down. The big story last week was the return of Sam Walker, but that is cast into insignificance next to this week’s redemption arc, the glorious return of Chad Townsend to the club where he won a Premiership.

The Chad was consigned to reserve grade long ago, but with Hugo Savala suspended, he is a surprise selection over Sandon Smith, previously one of the Roosters’ best. On the back of this, plenty have joined the dots and decided that Smith has signed elsewhere for next year.

Either way, it’s a strange choice. It probably makes Cronulla favourites.

Tip: Sharks

Melbourne v Manly

Distance be damned, this is a proper rivalry, built on the field through mutual distaste.

Then again, that’s largely been played out at Brookvale: Manly’s record in Melbourne is horrendous, with five wins from 21 visits, including none of their last four. In fact, in that time, they’ve only scored 32 points while conceding 122. Ouch.

The Sea Eagles have found a little form – albeit against the Tigers and Bunnies – and enter off the bye, so will bring some confidence. This is the first of a tough month, with Canberra then the Roosters, then Canterbury next.

If they’re serious, now would be a good time to show it. Melbourne? They’ll just do what they always do.

Tip: Storm

Panthers v Souths

Back in the dim and distant past of, err, March, this provided one of the shocks of the season.

The Bunnies were 28-0 up at half time and cruised to victory on a Thursday night at Accor Stadium, confounding expectations that they would struggle this year and pre-empting the last rites on the Panthers dynasty.

But wait: Penrith aren’t quite back to their imperious peak, but they are on a serious tear, sixth in the league and five unbeaten.

Souths, on the other hand, are right at the bottom and haven’t won in two months. Normal service resumed, right?

Penrith are sufficiently confident that they’ve sat down Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo on the back of Origin commitments, mitigated by the return of Brian To’o and Dylan Edwards, who missed last week’s win over Parramatta.

Souths don’t have that luxury. Latrell Mitchell plays but there’s no Campbell Graham, Cody Walker or Brandon Smith and, in general, they’re pretty bare bones. Lewis Dodd is set to come off the bench, if you wanted to know the sort of straits they’re in.

Five wins in and with four winnable games coming, this should be the start of the finals tilt for the four-time Premiers. For the Bunnies, a defeat is pretty much the end.

Tip: Panthers

Everyone else

We’ve left Sunday out entirely from our main preview, largely because the Titans, Tigers and Knights aren’t really worth talking about that much anymore.

The first two will clash at Leichhardt Oval on Sunday, both trying to salvage the burning wreckage of their season.

It’s already too late for the Gold Coast, but if Wests get the win, they’re still an outside chance. Lose and it’s a full decade without post-season footy for their long-suffering fans.

Newcastle are still reeling from the news that both captain Kalyn Ponga and coach Adam O’Brien look likely to leave at the end of the season. While on the surface that looks destabilising, neither have really delivered and it’s probably for the best. They play the Warriors, and will probably lose.

Our final game is the Saturday 3pm, where an ailing Parramatta travel to the table-topping Raiders. Canberra, in winter, a daytime game, an out of form opponent. We all know how this goes.

Tip: Raiders, Tigers, Warriors