NRL Round 19 Tipping: Mismatches, Origin impacts and classic rivalries

Silly season is almost over with Origin fast fading into the rearview mirror. This is the last of the short rounds, and not that short either: three teams sit out, but everyone else backs up.

Manly, Souths and Canberra are our non-starters, but while they’re in Bali, there’s plenty of footy to keep an eye on.

The race to the finals starts here, and several down the list are already entering last chance saloon. Let’s get into it.

Cowboys v Bulldogs

Intriguing is the obvious word for the Saturday headliner in Townsville, which might be the Bulldogs’ toughest test of the year so far.

North Queensland are far from great shakes, but they have multiple Queensland Origin winners, including man of the series Tom Dearden, so won’t lack confidence. They lost last time out without their rep stars, but proved their attack can still fire with some excellent tries.

Canterbury are in their roughest trot of the year so far, having chucked away two points last week at home to Brisbane and lost a thriller to Penrith before that.

For the first time, there are questions about what they want to do with their talent – not least Lachie Galvin, who for all his talent, doesn’t have an obvious place in the team.

If the Dogs lose here, those queries will only grow louder. If the Cowboys lose, they’re basically done for the year. There’s plenty on the line.

Tip: Bulldogs

Dragons v Roosters

The Dragons and Roosters is a classic rivalry, albeit one in which the classics have been thin on the ground of late.

It’s been very one-sided: the Dragons have taken just seven of the previous 28 clashes between these two going back to 2011. 

The last three have been Easts by plenty – 42 or more – but they won’t arrive with that sort of confidence this time. They were defeated last time out against the Tigers in one of the upsets of the season.

The big story is the return of Sam Walker, who plays his first game in the NRL since doing his ACL nearly a year ago. 

With him in the side, the Roosters can be anything – but it’s a lot of pressure to get up to speed quickly for a team that needs to get back to winning ways.

Tip: Roosters

Parramatta v Panthers 

Parramatta have only played three times since they last faced the Panthers – who schedules these things? – but a Battle of the West is always worth getting up for.

That game finished 18-10 to Penrith thanks to a late Brian To’o try, and since then, they’ve gone unbeaten. In fact, they’ve looked the best they have all year, winning away in New Zealand then at home to the Bulldogs.

In theory, that should mean Penrith romp home here. Just remember, however, that they’ve got far more players backing up – only Zac Lomax featured from the Eels compared to five Panthers – and no guarantee that Ivan Cleary will ask his stars to go to the well again.

His side need a win, but not as much as they did a few weeks ago – when he rested everyone. If everyone plays, the champions will be favourites, but that’s a big if at the moment.

Tip: Panthers

Warriors v Tigers

The Wests Tigers have won games in the past, but have historically struggled to back those good moments up with repeat performances.

A superb win at the Roosters last week was the best signal yet that the young guys in this team are worth backing, and against a Warriors side missing a fair few, they will have a chance to double down on their success.

Then again, this is the Wahs. They’re conservative but competent this year and, off the back of two defeats, will be plenty motivated to get a win on home soil. They’ve also won eight straight against the Tigers. 

The Kiwis will start with an unfamiliar combination of Chanel Harris-Tavita and Tanah Boyd in the halves, but have a strong pack and, against the Tigers, that’s usually enough.

Tip: Warriors

Sharks v Dolphins

Redcliffe’s record in Sydney isn’t great, but they have a 100% record in the Shire following a stunning victory last year. 

In fact, they’ve won both meetings between the clubs so far in their short history – quite a mad fact given that they’ve played Newcastle on six occasions, but Cronulla (and Manly) just once.

The Dolphins have been in exceptional attacking form, but rely a lot on Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, who would have to back up within two days to feature on Friday night. 

The Hammer scored one of his best ever tries in this fixture last year and his side will need him with their other livewire, Kodi Nikorima, injured. 

The Sharks are sinking like a stone at the moment, having won just one from five, so will have plenty of motivation. They need a win here, and with no Origin back-ups, they should get it.

Tip: Sharks

Everyone else

Only two extra games this weekend and both are mismatches. 

The Storm might have more players backing up than anyone else, but face a Newcastle side without Kalyn Ponga or Fletcher Sharpe, which basically rules them out of winning. Melbourne’s Queensland contingent could turn up stinking of XXXX and still win.

The Broncos get until Sunday teatime to rest up their big hitters, and the benefit of playing down the road on the Gold Coast against a Titans outfit with a few Maroons stars of their own.

We could go deep into the tactical analysis and predictions, but really, it’s the Gold Coast. They’ll either be dreadful (most likely) or have one of the weird, occasional moments where they remember they’re a footy team. Don’t hold your breath.

Tip: Melbourne, Brisbane