NRL Round 10 Tipping: Upsets in store as Origin selection looms

Magic is in the rear view mirror, which can only mean one thing: let’s ignore the NRL, it’s Origin time.

Every round of footy from now until the team is picked a week on Sunday is crucial – not least for the Blues, who have plenty of spots up for grabs.

May v Utoikamanu is a good place to start, with the pair of prospective NSW props (and former Samoa roommates) facing off on Sunday in Melbourne. Mitchell Moses gets to put down his audition on Thursday before Jarome Luai gets his run on Sunday.

Hudson Young v Jacob Preston would have been fun, too, had the Bulldogs backrower not got suspended, so instead, we can turn to the likes of Latrell Mitchell, back in the Souths side, and Tom Trbojevic, returning for Manly after a bye, who will want a tune up.

Queensland? Well, Billy Slater likes to pretend that he picks players based on how Queenslander they are rather than footy skills or form, so expect Corey Horsburgh to get fired up, Tom Dearden to try too hard and Robert Irwin to unexpectedly play in the centres for Redcliffe.

Anything is possible in Round 10. Let’s get to it.

Canberra v Canterbury

It’s first v second as the Doggies travel to the nation’s capital for what is, on paper, quite an unlikely table-topper.

Canterbury were relatively well-favoured to start the year, but have exceeded expectations even beyond that, losing just one game so far.

Canberra are even more unlikely, with some tipping them to finish in the bottom four rather than the top.

If you want an indication of how unlikely this combination is ten rounds in, the good people at Fox League slotted the match in at 3pm on Saturday, far from a glamour spot.

Good form is good form, however, and the punters are already piling in. Tickets are already gone and the expectation is that it’ll be a belter – with the hometown Raiders ever-so-slight favourites.

Tip: Bulldogs

Manly v Sharks

Another weekend where we’ve saved the best for last, with the platonic ideal of the Sydney rugby league fan in full view.

It’s two suburbs doing battle on an autumn afternoon, the hill packed and the beer flowing. Better still, both Manly and Cronulla are actually quite good and love attacking footy, so all elements are there for a great game.

The Sharks come in on the back of a victory over Parramatta – for what that’s worth – while the Sea Eagles avoided their traditional Magic Round defeat by not playing at all, instead resting with the bye.

Manly impressed last time out, turning over Penrith thanks to a timely Tom Trbojevic return and a sterling showing from Haumole Olakau’atu. Throw in Jake Trbojevic, who missed the Panthers game, and Jason Saab, a late pullout, and you’ve a strong squad.

Then again, a decent Manly team lost to Cronulla less than a month ago. The Sharks won’t fear anything.

Tip: Manly

Cowboys v Panthers

Speaking of sides with recent form, the Cowboys have defeated Penrith once already this season, turning over the Premiers 26-20 in Round 5.

That night, they managed to shut down an effervescent Nathan Cleary, while having enough elsewhere in the line-up to win the battles across the field.

That might be a bit harder this time around. Cleary dominated last weekend over the Broncos, and is now joined by Dylan Edwards, who missed the previous meeting, and Brian To’o, who hasn’t played since March.

The 17 that will travel to Townsville is, if not the strongest Ivan Cleary could put out, at least a lot closer to it than he’s had available in a long time.

North Queensland are in decent nick – even losing at Magic Round, they looked OK – but they will have to be on it and then some to get the points here.

Tip: Panthers

Souths v Broncos

The Broncos were underperforming and winning. Now they’re just underperforming.

Defeat to Penrith is never that shameful, but the manner of it last week was. Brisbane threw next to no attack and got everything they deserved, copping a Cleary masterclass of the highest order.

Lucky for them, they travel to Souths, who lost in even more disappointing fashion at Magic Round. They shipped 30 points to a Newcastle side that previously looked like they wouldn’t score if the opposition went off.

Brisbane were superb in beating the Bulldogs, but lost the two games before it and the one after it. Souths’ strong start is a distant memory and they have gone 0-4 in the last month.

Someone has to show up here. Will it be Latrell Mitchell, back after suspension? What about Adam Reynolds against his old club?

Michael Maguire, the Bronx coach, is also in that boat, and while we’re at it, so is his opposite number, Wayne Bennett.

It’s narrative city in Homebush on Friday night.

Tip: Broncos

Eels v Dolphins

The NRL loves to throw up matches like this – one team bad but starting to improve, one that might be bad, might be good and nobody knows.

Redcliffe’s form line was four defeats to start, then three wins – including last year’s Grand Finalists back to back. At half time against the Raiders, the Phins were leading easily.

Then it collapsed. Then it collapsed again at Magic Round. Seems like a good time to play a poor Parramatta, right?

Well, the Eels are a bad team but they are improving. Wins against the Dragons and Tigers got the season off the ground, and with Mitch Moses back, anything is possible.

He’ll be high on the list of those looking to impress as Origin squads get picked. Don’t back against him putting on a show here.

Tip: Dolphins

Everyone else

Newcastle v Gold Coast is the most 6pm Friday worthy fixture about, so we’ll not spend much time there. It’s the team that barely attacks against the one that barely defends.

Instead, there’s the Wahs’ trip to St George Illawarra, remarkable for the fact that, when these two met in 2021, the Warriors finished with a 97% completion rate.

They won, but as your columnist (who was on the hill that day) can attest, it was not pretty. If they do it again, it’ll be equally as dull but they’ll take the two points back to Auckland and won’t care a jot.

The Sunday 2pm features a wounded Storm, fresh off a pretty self-inflicted loss to the Raiders, hosting a sort-of resurgent Tigers.

Wests have won two in a row, amazing form for them, but traveling to Melbourne is as hard as it gets. It won’t be three.

Tips: Knights, Warriors, Storm