NRL Predictions: Dogs to keep roaring, Sharks-Storm thriller and Origin formlines

This is one of the stranger weekends of the rugby league year, where the biggest event in the news cycle will be the end of the round, when the Origin squads will be announced.

That’s later than ever this time around, too, with Women’s Origin on Thursday and thus a late Sunday game to complete the set in the blokes’ comp.

The last round is often the most important in selection even if the coaches don’t like to admit how influenced by it they are. 

This being footy, everyone has to get through unscathed – easier said than done – and without getting suspended, which has taken a few out in the past.

In terms of specifics, NSW would like to see Zac Lomax get a run for Parramatta to prove his ability to suit up on the 28th May in Brisbane, while Queensland will likely pick Harry Grant regardless, but would be happier if he played to get his first run in weeks.

There’s a whole heap of selection issues – oh, and a whole round of NRL too. Let’s get into it.

Cronulla v Melbourne

Last week we had first v second, now we get third v fifth as Melbourne travel to Cronulla.

The knock on the Sharks is always performances against the best, and while they’ve been decent in 2025, that hasn’t gone anywhere. 

Their biggest game so far was a huge flop, losing to Canterbury heavily at home, and their next biggest, the Vegas tie with Penrith, also went against them.

The Sharks are going to have to put up or shut up at some point, so why not now? 

The Storm come in on the back of a huge victory over the Tigers – ironically a side the Sharks have lost to – but with a decidedly dodgy record away from AAMI Park, with Manly the only side they have defeated on the road.

Someone’s weak point has to go.

Tip: Storm

Canterbury v Roosters

A week of homecoming for the Dogs, who despite their superb record have actually only played a limited number of games at Accor Stadium.

This will be just their fourth appearance at their official ground – they played one at their spiritual home of Belmore Sportsground – and with a semi-resurgent Roosters, who enter off the bye, as the visitors, we can expect a huge walk-up.

Easts are doing a lot better than expected and find themselves, but have been dreadful at this venue: they lost to Souths on the last pass of the game, had Dom Young sent off in this fixture last year and were somehow even defeated by the Trent Barrett-coached Doggies in 2022.

In fact, if you’ve got a minute, the Chooks are 3-7 in their last ten at Homebush, so don’t be backing them travelling west with any confidence this time around.

Tip: Canterbury

Cowboys v Manly

Back in Round 1, this was a massacre. Manly looked the business, leading 24-0 at the break en route to a crushing 42-12 victory.

We all looked at the Sea Eagles and wondered if they mightn’t be Premiership contenders. No more: since Daly Cherry-Evans announced ahead of Round 4 that he will leave at the end of the year, Manly’s record is 2-4.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, have gone the other way. They’re 4-1-1 since that same weekend – they were 0-3 before it – and despite not winning in their last two, they pushed the Warriors all the way and then drew with the Panthers.

The formlines are clear, but then again, that was also true last year only for DCE to slot a Golden Point winner for the Sea Eagles. 

Lighting probably won’t strike twice: North Queensland start as favourites on home turf.

Tip: Cowboys

Tigers v Souths

The Campbelltown Clasico is here, with the team that theoretically represents the region against the one that actually does. 

It’s ironic that Souths are so well represented in Southwest Sydney given that the man who spearheaded their drive into the area, Shane Richardson, is now in charge of the Tigers and trying to get the ground where this will be played upgraded.

On the football side, there’s an interesting dynamic at play. Souths come in with the formline, having beaten the Broncos on the back of an all-timer from Latrell Mitchell, whereas the Tigers were battered 64-0 in Melbourne.

But wait: Latrell is often great in big games – say, Friday night prime time against the Broncos – and can be absent in others – say, a Sunday night in Campbelltown against the Tigers – whereas Wests are arriving with a point to prove.

This is far from the best teams in the NRL, but they are consistently two of the most interesting. Expect entertainment.

Tip: Tigers

Dolphins v Warriors

The Wahs have been great, but historically, that hasn’t been a situation that lasts. They are now on their third week of travel back to back – Magic, Dragons away, Dolphins away – and that will catch up with anyone.

Throw in that they have gone down to the wire in both of those previous two matches and you’re looking at a team that could have a serious amount of fatigue in the legs.

Redcliffe will be smarting, too. Though they won last week against Parramatta, they lost in embarrassing circumstances when given top billing at Magic Round, and the week before that to Canberra as well.

Any game that features the Wahs playing in Southeast Queensland is usually great telly, as they have a huge support base among Kiwi expats, and when you chuck in the Phins, it gets even better. 

Tip: Dolphins

Everyone else

Last week we gave Newcastle v Gold Coast billing as the most 6pm Friday worthy going – but this week’s early starter in the Hunter against Parramatta has real Spoonbowl potential. 

What the good people of Newcastle did to deserve back to back home games in the worst kick off spot is anyone’s guess. The Knights are celebrating Dane Gagai’s 300th game so should get up.

The Sunday programme fills out the round. The Broncos will return Ezra Mam to the NRL after his long suspension for a cocaine-fuelled car crash that resulted in an injury to a child and her mother. 

Many have called for a much longer ban than the nine matches he got, and the Broncos might have chosen to sit him for a few more weeks in Queensland Cup, but with both Ben Hunt and backup Jock Madden injured, the five eighth is in. The reception, even from Bronx fans, might be hostile.

Sunday 4pm should be a prime spot, but when the Titans are involved, nothing really is. They travel to Canberra on the ultimate hiding to nothing: the Raiders, last week’s second half aside, have been red hot and the Gold Coast, last week’s second half aside, haven’t.

Tips: Knights, Broncos, Raiders