NRL Finals Week One Predictions: Does the Panthers dynasty end here? Can Cronulla finally deliver?

What’s past is prologue, and in the tempest of the NRL, it’s very true.

Just ask anyone involved: they’ll tell you that the finals is an entirely different competition. It’s glib, it’s cliche, it’s a little bit tedious…and, yep, it’s true.

Our four games are really two competitions, one a knockout and one more of a vibes-based affair.

The bottom four of the top eight are already in sudden death mode, which suits two of them down to the ground and could spell disaster for the other two.

Penrith and the Roosters have been playing like it’s win or bust for half their season, and are used to this type of game with the sort of learned intensity that only comes from having done it a thousand times before.

The Sharks have that experience too, only they’re used to losing, and the Wahs don’t really have it at all.

In the top four of the top eight, it’s playing for placements.

Melbourne and Canterbury are spluttering, but could right that this week and then get a week to build to their biggest game of the season. Canberra and Brisbane get their crack at proving why those other two – and Easts and Penrith – should take them seriously.

It’s all very interesting. Let’s get into it.

Storm v Bulldogs

We start in Melbourne, where two of the strongest-looking teams of 2025 suddenly seem down on their luck.

Neither have covered themselves in glory late in the season – the Storm through a bit of misfortune, the Bulldogs almost entirely of their own doing.

Melbourne lost Harry Grant to suspension for several weeks, at a time when he was about the best player in the competition, and get him back for the important stuff.

That’s the good bit – the bad is that they’ll be without Jahrome Hughes, their next best player, who is almost certainly done for the year with a broken wrist, as well as Ryan Papenhuyzen for this week with a concussion sustained in the very last seconds of last week’s defeat to Brisbane.

They’re also down Nelson Asofa-Solomona, though he’s been a bit of a liability all year and the Storm could actually be better without him.

Canterbury could have rested everyone last week, but inexplicably chose to field a full strength side in a meaningless game with Cronulla. It gained a lot of meaning quickly as first Bronson Xerri, then Marcelo Montoya got injured – and the Doggies lost anyway.

That’s all a lot of preamble to say that neither side is in great nick, but that Melbourne look slightly stronger. They’re at home and have the experience – so will probably nick it.

Tip: Storm

Warriors v Panthers

The Warriors essentially put in the towel when both Mitch Barnett and Luke Metcalf, their best two players, got injured.

They’ve plummeted from third by a distance to sixth, with the only silver lining on their season being that it is now over: had it been two weeks longer, one of Manly or the Dolphins would have nicked in ahead of them.

Penrith have gone in almost the opposite direction. At the halfway point, when the Wahs were three wins clear of fifth, the Panthers were 13th on just five wins.

Credit to Ivan Cleary – they never panicked. Once Penrith had settled that the top four was beyond their reach, they honed in on winning from deep, even as much as resting players to give themselves maximum chance.

That requires four wins on the road, but the Panthers might argue that they’ve already been doing that all year as their stadium is being renovated.

They are heavy favourites in Auckland, and should it happen, will be again next weekend against the Bulldogs. All going well, they probably would be in a Prelim at Canberra or Brisbane, and likely then a Grand Final. Don’t count it out.

Tip: Panthers

Sharks v Roosters

The undisputed tie of the round is, thanks to the quirks of scheduling, actually given top billing on Saturday night primetime.

Cronulla are perennial underachievers, piloting a series of soft draws and an admittedly useful knack for beating the dross to a fourth consecutive finals series.

So far, they’ve won just once in those appearances – and that was against a Cowboys team with no right to be where they were – giving the impression of flat-track bullies, chokers and whatever else you might want to throw at them.

The only answer to that charge would be to start knocking off favourites, which could start on Saturday with the Roosters.
Easts are the opposite, battling their way into contention the hard way after a slow start. Now, with a full side on deck and in rampant attacking form, they’re a threat for anyone.

The positive for Cronulla will be that they’ve already downed the Roosters at home once this year, and that their most convincing win in a long time was last week against the Dogs.

It’ll take a big win for the Sharks to win, and it’s even harder to imagine them backing that up with a victory in Brisbane/Canberra a week later, but they could go a long way to shifting their reputation as finals also-rans.

Tip: Roosters

Raiders v Broncos

This might be the game that tells us the most about the ultimate destination of the Premiership.

The knock on the Raiders has been their ability to beat the best – not that they haven’t, necessarily, but more the manner of it.

Undeniably, their draw was soft and their wins over the Panthers and Storm, in particular, were streaky. On both occasions, it took Golden Point miracles, and while they were spectacular at the time, it’s not exactly replicable form.

The Broncos would be a good staging post. Brisbane enter in good form but with clear faults, and a win in the capital would catapult them from fools gold to real deal very quickly indeed.

In a competition that is wide open, this would be a statement. Michael Maguire was an assistant at Canberra very recently, knows exactly how the Raiders will play and is an expert at getting a side up for a showpiece occasion.

Should the Broncos win, they’d get a Prelim at Suncorp Stadium and thus a very, very good chance of a Grand Final. If they lose, you could easily envisage a straight sets exit next week.

That’s the sort of side the Bronx are, especially without Adam Reynolds: high ceiling, low floor.

Canberra are a lot more consistent, but they’ve not been here in a long time. Will the occasion get to them? Or will they turn it on? It’s intriguing, and even though both get another crack regardless, this game will go a long way to informing whether either are serious contenders.

Tip: Raiders