NRL Finals Week 2 Predictions: Two nail-biters and a possible upset await on epic weekend

People involved in rugby league like to tell you that the Finals are a different comp entirely – but, really, the first week of that doesn’t count.

Now, with just five games of footy remaining, it is actually something brand new. This is knockout footy, with no second chances, and we’re all the better for it.

Last weekend saw one of the greatest finals matches of all time, but really, it was a bit contextless. Once the dust settled, neither team was out and both parties get to go again – with the only difference that Canberra, who ultimately lost, get to do it sooner.

The other three games spluttered somewhat, but as we enter the second week of the postseason, there’s nowhere to hide. It’s now or never, starting in Canberra on Friday night.

Raiders v Sharks

There’s a great tactical preview to be written for the Raiders-Sharks game, but we can’t ignore the myriad narratives running through this one off the very top, because this is a match that will be played out in the collective heads of the players as much as on the whiteboard.

Canberra are inexperienced at this level and just lost a seemingly unloseable game. The doubts that haven’t been countenanced as the team rode a wave of positive reinforcement are suddenly front and centre.

This week, glory could be theirs, but so could abject failure. Finishing first and going out in straight sets is the sort of thing that can crush a young team.

What if those wins over Melbourne and Penrith in the regular season were flukes? How long can you rely on miracle finishes before you yourself are the victim of one going the other way?

Take out those statement wins, achieved in impressive but, objectively, highly improbable circumstances, and who have Canberra beaten? They collapsed against the Bulldogs in their only other game of note.

Just ask the Sharks.

They have spent years trying to shed themselves of the tag of flat-track bullies, great to bash up on bad sides but soft against good ones.

This season, like Canberra, benefited from a softer-than-soft draw, racking up victories against dross but invariably losing to good sides.

Now, they’ve knocked over a Dogs side that put out a proper team and playing to win, then beat the Roosters, who were in great form coming into the finals.

Mentally, Cronulla are in a good place and, crucially, they don’t have much to lose. If they exit at this stage it’ll be disappointing, but it’s not as damaging as it would be for the Raiders to depart at the same juncture.

Half of this contest depends on Canberra’s ability to get themselves back up from the body blow last week.

Do that and they’ve got a lot in their favour: the game is in Canberra, they’ve already beaten the Sharks once this year and they finished first for a reason.

Tactically, it’s also about the Raiders. Their style is based on pushing the limits of the rules – watch how this is reffed, by the way – in the ruck and physically dominating in the middle.

If they can impose that style, and if the officials allow them to, then the game can be played on their terms.

Cronulla are stronger up front than at any previous point under Craig Fitzgibbon, but if it becomes a game of territory, they will probably lose. Canberra’s strike, from both the boot of Jamal Fogarty and the running of Ethan Strange, is too good.

What the Sharks need is for a fast game that can help bring their edges and outside men in. Last week, they were far better than the Roosters in the middle, limiting offense generally and, with 30 points total in the game, they were able to edge it.

It’s highly unlikely that Cronulla will do that to Canberra. If it’s open, as it was last week in the Raiders’ defeat, then there’s no reason the Sharks can’t come out on top.

Again, that circles back to the type of game the Raiders make it. Slow everything down and it suits Canberra.

Last week, there were 19 infringements total in the Raiders’ defeat to Brisbane, compared to just 12 in the Sharks-Easts game.

Cronulla have had the most net infringements in their favour in the entire NRL this year, Canberra concede the most Six Agains.

It might yet be that the most important person on the field is Grant Atkins, who is on the lower side of the ref scale when it comes to waving the hand. If he keeps out of it, Canberra benefit. They’ll get their sort of game. If he speeds things up and goes hard, Cronulla can capitalise.

Tip: Raiders

Bulldogs v Panthers

The Bulldogs lost twice last week in Melbourne, and it’s hard to work out which was the bigger defeat.

The actual loss to the Storm matters, obviously, in that the Doggies now have to go again a week later, but at this end of the year and with this set of individuals, it’s the injuries that matter more.

Canterbury are a supreme defensive side who have often relied on inspiration from one or two players to break down opponents.

Now, two of the most frequent providers of those moments – Stephen Crichton and Viliame Kikau – are injured. They might yet play, as Kikau is named and Critta is in the reserves, but make no mistake about it, both are hurt and it’s a big risk.

The Panthers have no such qualms. They were able to tune up with a risk-free win over the Warriors, and now actually strengthen with the return of tone-setter Mitch Kenny, who was ruled out in Auckland following a head knock the week before.

Both of these teams are defence-first in outlook and will seek to play the long game of position and possession.

On the evidence of their first meeting, Penrith are better at it, and four consecutive Premierships will tell you that they’re also more accustomed to this time of year.

Dogs coach Cameron Ciraldo has made a great job of taking his learnings from a long apprenticeship under Panthers boss Ivan Cleary and turning them into a coherent playstyle that few NRL clubs can match. Now, his side are arguably even better defensively than the Penrith team he left.

That’s how you finish highly in the regular season, but in these crunch knockout games, often it works the other way around. When both teams are strong defensively, it’s about how you can overcome that – and there’s no way around the roster imbalances in this one.

Who do you want at halfback, Nathan Cleary or Toby Sexton? At lock, Jaeman Salmon or Isaah Yeo? At hooker, Mitch Kenny or Bailey Hayward?

At fullback, Dylan Edwards is bang out of form, but he has runs on the board that Connor Tracey can only dream of.

There’s room for conjecture around Lachlan Galvin and Blaize Talagi, but the bottom line is that both are very young and in the other four most important positions on the field, Penrith have it.

Last year, Canterbury faced a Manly side that were worse in pretty much every area of the game, but had Daly Cherry-Evans and two Trbojevics.

Last week, Canterbury faced a Storm side that were worse in pretty much every area of the game, but had Cameron Munster and Harry Grant.

Now, they face a Panthers team with all their big guns. It’s hard to look past that.

Tip: Panthers