NRL Finals Predictions: The Panthers five-peat lives on: but who faces them in the Grand Final?

There’s a strong argument that this is actually the best weekend of footy all year. Sure, Grand Final weekend is great – but there’s only three games, and they’re all on the same day.

Magic Round slaps too, but it’s borderline impossible to follow the whole thing – and by the end, you’re sick of looking at the Suncorp pitch.

Prelim weekend has it all. Two massive, consequential games, spread out well so you can get maximum attention on both. There’s even the AFL Grand Final in between this year, so you can survey the other options and realise how much better rugby league is as a sport.

The NRL opted not to go head to head with the Victorian showpiece, and instead smartly moved their own Melbourne-based game to the Friday night to maximise attendance on what is a public holiday in the southern state.

They’ve moved the second game to Sunday afternoon, giving themselves a red hot crack at some massive ratings with a fan-friendly 4pm timeslot. Sure, it’s going to be 30 degrees plus in Brisbane, but for those watching in air conditioned homes, that won’t matter.

The line-up this time around is a nice mix: the ominous Panthers, ubiquitous Storm, upstart Sharks and unpredictable Broncos.

It would have been nice for poetic purposes to have kept Canberra – four slots, four cities, right? – but don’t begrudge the Sharkies their moment in the sun.

It’s all well set – so let’s get into where the games will be won and lost.

Storm v Sharks

Melbourne in Melbourne should be the most intimidating task in rugby league, but for the Sharks, it might feel like the eye of the storm is exactly where they want to be.

There’s no free hits at this time of year, but for Cronulla, there is a chance to play in a liberated manner.

This is where they exited last year, so theoretically Craig Fitzgibbon is at par, but the manner of 2024’s defeat has cast such a long shadow that it’s hard to remember that the Sharks reached the Prelim at all.

They got thumped at AAMI Park in week one, beat a Cowboys team who had run their race, then were pulverised by Penrith. The gap between the Sharks and the two Premiership contenders looked no closer, even though they played a week out from the Grand Final.

In 2018, the previous time Cronulla played a Prelim, it was much the same. Squashed week one, slipped through week two, squashed again week three. This is the record that Cronulla are trying to overturn.

Except, really, they already have. They won week one, impressively, to knock out a Roosters side that everyone thought were dark horses. Then they went to Canberra in week two and took out the Minor Premiers.

Fitzy won’t feel like he’s playing with house money at this stage, but he is. It’s all up, up – even if they won’t accept that.

Tactically, there’s nothing new about the Sharks that we didn’t know. They are a highly settled side, with roughly the same personnel and playstyle all year and, indeed, several years before that.

High push supports, attack at the corners, two halves who want to run and the hooker will play straight. Addin Fonua-Blake will try to hit short lines and, if that fails, so will the backrowers.

This is not the time to be upsetting any applecarts. At the risk of reducing the NRL’s showpiece to a Permian Basin Friday night, it’s all very “clear eyes, full hearts, can’t lose” for Cronulla.

The reason they can be so consistent is because Melbourne aren’t. The Storm have all the things you want going into this game, but also plenty of doubts they can’t shift.

They won week one and got the bye, they’re at home, they’re bringing players back from injury and they have as much muscle memory as anyone this time of year.

Melbourne also have a clear approach on how they’re going to play, but their system is highly dependent on the most talented players within it to make things happen, which brings the potential for variance.

Jahrome Hughes will play, but how fit is he? Is Ryan Papenhuyzen short of a race? Can the team gel all over again after barely playing together in months?

Though the discourse has focused on the former two points, particularly surrounding Hughes’ arm, the last might be most important.

Melbourne will line up their 1-7 at full strength, but it’s the first time they’ve all appeared since Round 1.

Craig Bellamy excels in raising the floor of his side, then letting the best players out there win the game for him. The trouble is that, since 2020’s Grand Final, that hasn’t worked at the pointy end.

This is a side that can be caught cold, is packed with players who might not be at their best and has shown signs of weakness a mile wide. Even Canterbury in week one, missing multiple stars and ravaged by injury, caused massive issues for Melbourne.

The Storm will be favourites because of who they are and their enormous track record. The pressure is all on Melbourne to be the team they are on paper. If they aren’t, the Sharks’ ambush is on.

Tip: Storm

Broncos v Panthers

The Broncos find themselves in the most unusual of positions.

They’re at a sold out Suncorp Stadium. They won week one and are rested. They are bringing back both Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam to an already stacked side. Yet, with every gambling outlet and most punters, they are second favourites.

It’s not hard to understand why. The weight of history is very much not in their favour, while their opponents travel north with history very much on their minds.
Before we get to the Panthers, it’s worth going into that record. Brisbane have lost nine of their last ten against Penrith, haven’t defeated them since the Six Again came in and have only scored more than two tries against them once in that run.

As much as this Broncos side is one with a high upside potential for attack, it’s never worked against Ivan Cleary’s outfit. There has been no answer to the relentless pressure.

Worryingly for Michael Maguire, it seems like the Panthers who have wiped the floor with all comers since 2021 are back. The Warriors and Bulldogs were dispatched with menace as Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo eased into finals mode.

Madge’s men did squeak past Canberra, but were undeniably fortunate to even have the chance to come back given that Reece Walsh, who inspired it all, shouldn’t have been on the field.

Walsh will be central here. Like Melbourne, they welcome back playmakers but have no idea how they will cope.

Reynolds and Mam haven’t played in six weeks due to injury, which coincided with the Broncos finally looking like a contender. The obvious thing is to bring them both back and play them, but the plan regarding how they all get onto the field together is not clear.

Walsh, Reynolds, Mam and Ben Hunt all together on the same field should be full of creativity, but there’s no guarantee that they actually will be. Their record as a quartet is 2-2, with the two wins over the useless Titans and Souths in their most injury hit period.

Penrith, on the other hand, bring no surprises. Why should they? Nobody has yet cracked the code.

They have subtly changed their approach with new players this year, but the basics of back five metres, centre-field linespeed and middle service through Isaah Yeo haven’t gone anywhere.

Brisbane, even factoring in the general strength of the Panthers in recent years, have proved totally incapable of cracking the code.

They won in Round 1 of 2023 – when Penrith had played one trial match and had half a team returning from the 2022 World Cup – and have lost on every other occasion.

Penrith are full strength, used to this time of year and have looked ominous. The Broncos can be a chaos machine, and will have to be to stand a chance.

Tip: Panthers