NRL Conclusions: Coaching casualty imminent and early Origin rumours

It’s the most wonderful time of the year, at least if you’re parochial about rugby league.

Yes, the annual sidelining of the world’s premier rugby competition for an all-star match has begun, so strap in for two months of state versus state, mate versus mate, constructed reality versus violent nostalgia.

Laurie Daley, who won just six of his 15 matches as NSW coach last time, is inexplicably back in charge of the Blues, while Billy Slater, who lost last year to the increasingly embattled Michael Maguire, has enough credit in the bank to get another go.

The main selection news for Daley is that Mitch Moses will partner Nathan Cleary in the halves, but bigger might be in the works with both Payne Haas and Stephen Crichton under injury clouds. 

Queensland are yet to release their team at time of writing, but the major story coming out is that Robert Toia, the Roosters rookie, has made the cut as the Maroons struggle for depth in the outside backs.

On the field, it was another week, another Canterbury comeback. The Doggies again turned around a big deficit – 14-0 down at half time to the Roosters, to go 9-1 for the season and maintain their place at the top of the table.

That came despite the try of the year from Mark Nawaqanitawase that looked like it had turned it around after the Bulldogs had poked their nose in front, only for another turnaround to follow.

The try from the former rugby union player went around the world, but close to home, in the Sutherland Shire, there was an even bigger story brewing…

A good week for…

The Sharks, who went a long way to deleting their flat track bullies tag with a stirring win over the Storm.

This isn’t the first time that Craig Fitzgibbon has turned over Craig Bellamy – indeed, Cronulla won away in Melbourne last year – but it does raise hopes that the 2025 Sharks might finally have turned a corner.

Last year, they took that statement win at AAMI Park but collapsed in the finals at the same venue. Now, they have done it a second time and in some fashion, too, holding off a late comeback to show a level of intestinal fortitude that many have doubted was there.

That’s three in a row going into Origin, and with no players included in the squad, the chance to bank some serious points while everyone else is understrength.

A bad week for…

The Broncos, who have deepened their crisis yet further with a defeat to the lowly Dragons at home on Sunday afternoon.

The week started badly for coach Michael Maguire, who was publicly called out for his methods by former player Elijah Taylor in a viral video. It was then revealed that one of his senior players, Marty Taupau, had liked the clip, causing him to be cut loose from the squad.

St George Illawarra are the sort of team you might want to face on the back of a poor week, but they saw blood in the water. 

Not for the first time, Brisbane went into the lead but failed to capitalise and were eventually run down by the Dragons, who scored twice with 12 men.

That’s five defeats from six for Maguire. It’s hard to see where the Bronx go: they’re clearly miles off it, with no direction and little hope of being more than also-rans.

Moreover, all the previous things that dogged Madge in the past – overtraining, intensity, poor man management – are all back in a big way. 

He was beloved by the Broncos old boys media club, but they will turn on him now, not least as Kevvie Walters, his predecessor, is sitting in the Fox League studios every week.

Only results will change that narrative, but unfortunately, Origin will still bite hard. 

Standout…

Mark Nawaqanitawase, who scored one of the weirdest, most brilliant tries you’ll ever see for the Roosters.

The winger was almost knocked into touch at the corner, but contorted himself to kick the ball before his foot hit the ground, then keep his feet, circumvent the corner flag and get to the footy in time to score.

The winger had already scored the opener and would have set up another for Robert Toia via a classy flick, only for the centre to drop the ball over the line. His runs were jagging and dangerous.

The good was great but the other bits were horrendous: Nawaqanitawase dropped no fewer than four bombs from Matt Burton and, like all the best rugby union converts, he still doesn’t really know where to stand in defence.

Marky Mark was the standout performer, albeit in the sense that he was central to almost everything that happened in a frenetic, see-sawing game.

It was the sort of footy that you can’t turn away from, a Ferrari going around the track at top speed, but also on fire. 

Was this a standout performance with a few washout moments? Or the other way around? Either way, it was unmissable.

Washout…

Adam O’Brien, who will surely become the first NRL coach sacked this year after another, another horror show at home.

His Knights have won one in eight – and that has been a relatively soft run of fixtures, too, with only two opponents currently in finals contention. 

If you extend that out to the last calendar year, O’Brien’s record is 25 games, 16 defeats, a 36% record. That’s sacking form.

The results are horrendous and performances clueless: this is a side with zero attack despite having the highest paid player in the world at fullback. 

Kalyn Ponga should be checking the fine print of his contract and wondering why he signed on again. Dylan Brown, who scored against the Knights on Friday night, might think the same.

Having played all the bad teams and lost to most of them, the draw from here to the end of the year is very, very hard for the Knights. 

This will get worse before it gets better, and the question will be when the hierarchy in the Hunter are willing to burn it all down and start again.

Everyone is talking about…

Origin squads, of course – but it’s just as much about who isn’t in them as who is.

Several of the big selection issues were solved ahead of time, with Jake Trbojevic, last year’s victorious NSW captain, ruled out through a nasty concussion in Manly’s win in North Queensland, a game that also claimed Murray Taulagi from the Maroons squad with a calf issue.

Tom Trbojevic was purely left out, perhaps carrying one of his many injuries but perhaps also just not in form. He was never likely to play fullback, Zac Lomax and Brian To’o were last year’s wingers and in the centres, Stephen Crichton and Latrell Mitchell got the call. 

It’s interesting that Campbell Graham was selected as a reserve for the Blues ahead of Turbo, who could take all three backline positions..

But nobody mentions…

Seen as we’re on the subject: Ben Trbojevic.

He had probably his best game in first grade in the Sea Eagles’ victory in Townsville, so at least someone in rugby league’s first family had something to celebrate.

The result slipped through the cracks somewhat, but it could be an inflection point for Manly. 

They’ve struggled of late but now face almost exclusively teams below them for two months. If they’re serious, this would be a good time to show it. 

They won’t be bothered that Turbo hasn’t been picked, and would like it very much if Jurbo hung around too. 

Haumole Olakau’atu is 20th man for NSW, so could get released for next Friday’s trip to Parra, so only Daly Cherry-Evans will be missing, something counteracted by Mitch Moses also being in Origin camp.

Forward pass

This will be our first week of Origin-affected footy, when the NRL decides that its own competition doesn’t really matter that much.

The points are still awarded, however, so there are a few consequential games. 

Manly’s trip to Parramatta would usually be a belter, but with both sides missing their most important player, it becomes a bit of a crapshoot. 

The Warriors will get a chance to lay down another marker, this time against the Raiders, who will be pretty much full strength as well. It’s a rare 4pm Sunday primetime for the Wahs, too, and the sort of spotlight that, often, has seen them crumble. Over to you, Auckland.