How many wins do Hull KR need to win League Leaders’ Shield after Wigan loss?
Eribe Doro (centre) has left Hull KR on loan.
It’s by no means done yet: but it’s hard not to believe Round 15 could well be the one where the fate of this year’s League Leaders’ Shield was effectively decided.
Hull KR and Wigan have been trading wins for weeks now, with the gap two points for a prolonged period: until now.
Rovers’ destruction of Castleford on Thursday followed by Wigan’s timid defeat to injury-hit Wakefield 24 hours later feels like a moment in time that could have swung the pendulum of power emphatically the way of the Robins.
Leg two of an historic treble now appears to be a better chance than ever before. With 14 wins from their first 15 games, Rovers already have 28 points and are four clear of Wigan. That means, mathematically given their points difference, 10 wins will be enough from the last 12.
But they may actually need less than that if history is anything to go by. There have been 21 seasons in which the League Leaders’ Shield has been awarded – excluding 2020 and 2021 due to the fact it was awarded on percentage, rather than points.
Ten more wins would take Rovers to 48 points, a total that has only been bettered THREE times before: Leeds in 2004 (50 points), Castleford in 2017 (50) and St Helens in 2019 (52). And even the latter two of those game in 30-game seasons, not 27.
But it’s perhaps more pertinent to look at how many points the side finishing second has traditionally amassed. In the most recent seasons when there have been 27 rounds played, those tallies are:
- 2024: Hull KR – 42
- 2023: Catalans – 40
- 2022: Wigan – 38
- 2019: Wigan – 36
- 2014: Wigan – 37
- 2013: Warrington – 41
- 2012: Warrington – 41
Which, historically speaking, would mean Rovers would only need 43 points – another 15 to clinch top spot based on recent years. That’s seven wins and a draw from 12 matches: entirely doable.
Of course, there is a slight caveat that this Wigan side is probably some way better than a lot of the teams that finished second on the list above: except Rovers, you could argue. With that in mind, Rovers will probably need more than 42 points.
But given the contrasting form of both sides at the minute, it’s entirely possible that the picture looks even more different by the time they meet again in August.
