How many points will secure a Super League play-off spot in 2025?

The run-in to the end of the season is now upon us in Super League: and there are three separate and compelling races going on simultaneously.

One is the battle for top spot – which could go a long way towards being decided on Friday evening should Hull KR win at Wigan Warriors.

Another is the scramble to get in the top two, which will intensify should Wigan slip up this weekend and one of Leigh, St Helens or Leeds win.

But the other is just as intriguing: what appears to be increasingly likely to be the battle for the sixth and final spot in the play-offs between Hull FC and Wakefield Trinity.

With a five-point gap between fifth-placed Leeds and sixth-placed Hull, it’s safe to assume five of the six play-off spots are now pretty much secure: and we’ll have a two-way shootout for the last one.

Going into Round 22, Hull are on 23 points and Wakefield are on 22; it couldn’t be much tighter. But historically, how many points guarantees you the top six – and how many more does each side realistically need?

Going off the four seasons since the Super 8s format that weren’t impacted by Covid-19 – so removing 2020 and 2021 from the equation – it appears there is somewhat of a magic number: 30 points.

That number or lower has been enough to guarantee a place in the top six in each of those seasons: albeit Catalans missed out with 30 last year, as St Helens snuck in on the same amount but on points difference. More on that later.

As mentioned, St Helens finished sixth on 30 points in 2024, while in 2019 the team who finished sixth – Hull FC – also had 30, four more than the team in seventh, Catalans. However in that year, it was a top five system, not a top six.

But in 2023 and 2022, you didn’t even need 30 to make the cut for the play-offs. The team in sixth in each of those two seasons – Warrington and Salford – each got 28, with the team in seventh mustering 26: just like Catalans in 2019.

However, the notion of Hull or Wakefield ending on a total as low as that seems unlikely, meaning 30 is more likely to be the magic number this time around.

The fact Wakefield have to play Salford twice in the final six – one of those this weekend and the other on the last day of the season – may also be crucial, too.

One thing that probably won’t matter this time, however, is points difference. That’s due to the fact Hull played out a draw with Leigh Leopards early in the season, a rare commodity if ever there was one in Super League these days.

That means it’s highly unlikely both Wakefield and Hull will finish on the same points total and be split by points difference.

So for Trinity, they need to win one game more than Hull between now and the end of the season.

For the Black and Whites, four wins would take them to 31 and pretty much guarantee a space in the top six. Three wins could yet be enough on 29.

But any slip up and Wakefield – who themselves will fancy four wins to be enough – are ready to pounce.